IS THE BOTTOM REALLY IN FOR CRYPTO?? π§΅
Study the chart below...
If you've been wondering what the 4 year cycle was all about and what drives it, the clues are below.
The cycle was never about halvings. It was about the Fed expanding and contracting its balance sheet β and the ISM Manufacturing Index was front-running every major turn. π (when balance sheet increases, people feel more comfortable, there are more jobs, more investment in production, smoother economic conditions)
The pattern: π’ISM above 58 = economy overheating = crypto tops π΄ISM collapsing = liquidity drying up = crypto bottoms fast.
Every single major cycle top and bottom maps almost perfectly to ISM inflection points. This wasn't coincidence.
Since 2022 ISM has barely poked above 50, twice. Both times crypto pumped hard for 4-6 weeks. AI, RWA, AI Agents, Meme Season. Then faded straight back under. No sustained expansion. No real retail return. π
Which brings me to October 2026.
A lot of people called that the cycle top. I don't think it was. π
ISM was well under 50. Retail never came back with any conviction. There was no euphoria, no blowoff, no "this time it's different" from your uncle at Christmas. That was an apathy top, not a cycle top.
And if October wasn't the real top... then this isn't the real bottom either.
Right now ISM is quietly grinding higher. The Fed is injecting billions weekly via T-Bill issuance. That liquidity is lifting equities and real assets, crypto has been the one asset conspicuously lagging NASDAQ and SPX. ποΈ Manipulation??
When ISM eventually crosses 58 and the economy runs genuinely hot again, that's your signal. That's when the real top forms.
Based on the trajectory? That's a 2027-2028 conversation.
Same cycle. Misread timeline. β³