Delivering insights into global challenges through the science and art of #Superforecasting. Test your forecasting prowess at gjopen.com
Joined September 2014
- Tweets 2,659
- Following 695
- Followers 11,327
- Likes 1,090
744 Photos and videos
Good Judgment’s forecasters beat US intelligence analysts who had access to classified intel. You can learn how they do it. Two evenings, 14-15 July, 6-8:30 PM EDT, on Zoom.
Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting. tickettailor.com/events/good…
1
208
“Forecasting is not a ‘you have it or you don’t’ talent. It is a skill that can be cultivated.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
Online training: goodjudgment.com/services/on…
1
3
353
Some people are consistently better at calling uncertain events. Not because they’re psychic, but because they’ve trained for it.
We teach how. Superforecasting Workshop, 14-15 July, 6-8:30 PM EDT, Zoom. tickettailor.com/events/good…
2
216
“Not all practice improves skill. It needs to be informed practice.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
Online Training: goodjudgment.com/services/on…
1
255
“Under- and overreaction to new information [are] the Scylla and Charybdis of forecasting. Good updating is all about finding the middle passage.”
- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
3
2
352
“Nuance matters. The more degrees of uncertainty you can distinguish, the better a forecaster you are likely to be.”
- Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
1
332
“Without revision, there can be no improvement.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
1
297
“I believe it is possible to see into the future, at least in some situations and to some extent, and that any intelligent, open-minded, and hardworking person can cultivate the requisite skills.” - Tetlock & Gardner in Superforecasting
Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
272
One last reminder: Superforecasting Workshop, 12 & 13 May, 12:00 pm - 2:30 pm ET.
Small groups. Researchers and Superforecasters guiding you through the techniques.
Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting.
1
1
1
344
“If it’s possible to improve foresight simply by measuring, ...why isn’t measuring standard practice? A big part of the answer ... lies in the psychology that convinces us we know things we really don’t.” -Tetlock & Gardner, Superforecasting
Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
1
309
“Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated...” - Tetlock & Gardner in Superforecasting
goodjudgment.com/services/up…
1
1
444
“Foresight is real. Some people have it in spades. They aren’t gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do have a real, measurable skill.” - Tetlock & Gardner
Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
2
3
383
“Superforecasting remains hard work. Those who do it well appreciate the fragility of their success. They expect to stumble. And when they do, they will get up, try to draw the right lessons, and keep forecasting.” - Tetlock & Gardner
Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
2
312
AI can synthesize data. But the toughest calls depend on how well you reason under uncertainty.
Learn Superforecasting firsthand: May 12-13 workshop, virtual, led by Superforecasters and decision scientists.
As featured in the NYT and Washington Post.
1
1
382
Ask us about government, NGO, and student rates. Register here: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
277
Our May 12-13 Superforecasting workshop covers probabilistic reasoning, calibration, cognitive biases, and structured forecasting, the same techniques that beat intelligence analysts by 30%.
As recently featured in the NYT and Washington Post.
Register: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
3
4
359
“Superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and—above all—self-critical. It also demands focus. ...our analyses have consistently found commitment to self-improvement to be the strongest predictor of performance.” -Tetlock & Gardner, Superforecasting
1
4
314
How do prediction markets, experts, and Superforecaster teams approach the same problems? Our CEO Dr. Warren Hatch talked with @washingtonpost about what sets each apart and where the real edge comes from.
wapo.st/4v1vjgs
1
1
4
318
“There is no reason to stop at three or four perspectives... In theory, there is no limit. So the best metaphor for this process is the vision of the dragonfly.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
goodjudgment.com/services/fu…
2
299