Trend surfer, btc and alts, nfa.
Joined November 2015
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bitcoin:native
Meaningful shift in momentum came as we swept 60K and reclaimed the range low.
Took some profits into the 4H 100MA (aggressive part of the daily downtrend) and bumped stops to entry.
From here, the developing 4H trend remains the key dynamic to defend from a local momentum perspective.
Higher target is a complete underside retest of the daily trend, but I’ll continue to objectively monitor for signs of weakness as price develops.
$BTC
Still bearish on the higher time frame.
That said, we're seeing some meaningful signs of momentum slowing down:
- Double 4H RSI divergence
- AO divergence
- Sweep of the external wick at 60K
- First 1H trend reclaim since 74K
If BTC is going to spend more time within this range before the next major move, I'd expect it from here.
Lose 59K and we likely form the next trending leg before our next HTF range forms.
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$BTC
Still bearish on the higher time frame.
That said, we're seeing some meaningful signs of momentum slowing down:
- Double 4H RSI divergence
- AO divergence
- Sweep of the external wick at 60K
- First 1H trend reclaim since 74K
If BTC is going to spend more time within this range before the next major move, I'd expect it from here.
Lose 59K and we likely form the next trending leg before our next HTF range forms.
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Surf ツ retweeted
Jun 13
Happy 8 figs to those who celebrates.
Today is the first milestone of @proliquid_xyz after 18 days of live trading.
After starting this project as a solo dev/founder in November last year up to now it has been a wild ride.
It first started as a simple project to replace some tooling existing for making better decisions before taking a trade by aggregating exchanges (screener, funding, multi-charts, news aggregator, telegram channels).
To the current state of running a whole better infrastructure for trading on @HyperliquidX with faster feedback, better order types, faster execution to enter a trade and exit while maximizing being a maker and paying less trade fees.
I still don't have a homepage / landing page to push the product to a broader audience than the people following my posts on X.
But I'm infinitely grateful to the people who have been trying the product since day one, giving me feedback and pushing me to build more and faster.
The only issue is that friends who have tried proliquid.xyz/terminal just can't switch anymore elsewhere as it's highly addictive.
Job not done 🦈❤️
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BTC held range lows. That ended up being the key nuance.
The result has been a very slow week trend-wise, with no real setups being printed by my system.
Now we're starting to see some of the first constructive signs of potential local relief. Not enough for me to suddenly become HTF bullish, but enough to stay open-minded to local momentum against the higher timeframe trend and get involved on that basis.
The bigger objective remains gauging whether any relief from here is simply a counter-trend move that ultimately provides the next opportunity to get involved on the short side from a higher timeframe swing perspective.
Market gave us some useful information over the last 24 hours.
Most of the divergence --> Range reclaim ideas on alt range lows never really got going. Instead, they just continued trading lower rather than reclaiming their local ranges. That's absolutely not what happens if relief is actually building.
At the same time, BTC is still locally hanging around range lows. So now we're stuck with an awkward dynamic:
Alts look like proper breakdowns, while BTC is still trading at a location where it could put in some sort of reaction.
That nuance makes it difficult to aggressively chase short continuation on alts unless you're specifically betting on BTC losing range lows.
For now, patience still feels like the highest EV approach. If BTC produces some sort of relief back into HTF trends, alts will likely reclaim lower timeframe trends as well and fill some gaps. That would create a window to evaluate whether the move is simply relief or an opportunity based on triggers to position for downside continuation.
On the other hand, if BTC does just lose range lows, I'd become much more comfortable being aggressive on the short side.
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When the market is indecisive, practice patience until something obvious sticks out.
Not every phase of the market requires action.
Why predict, when you can observe, gather data points and make decisions based on that. Simple planning, no fomo & peace of mind.
Go with the flow, not against it.
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Some of the traders who struggle the most are the ones who need certainty.
Fully bullish or fully bearish. All in or all out. The market rarely gives you that luxury.
Learning to operate in uncertainty while knowing what you'd need to see before putting risk behind a thesis is one of the hardest skills to develop. It's a fine line.
It's also one of the most valuable. Think probabilistically.
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Market gave us some useful information over the last 24 hours.
Most of the divergence --> Range reclaim ideas on alt range lows never really got going. Instead, they just continued trading lower rather than reclaiming their local ranges. That's absolutely not what happens if relief is actually building.
At the same time, BTC is still locally hanging around range lows. So now we're stuck with an awkward dynamic:
Alts look like proper breakdowns, while BTC is still trading at a location where it could put in some sort of reaction.
That nuance makes it difficult to aggressively chase short continuation on alts unless you're specifically betting on BTC losing range lows.
For now, patience still feels like the highest EV approach. If BTC produces some sort of relief back into HTF trends, alts will likely reclaim lower timeframe trends as well and fill some gaps. That would create a window to evaluate whether the move is simply relief or an opportunity based on triggers to position for downside continuation.
On the other hand, if BTC does just lose range lows, I'd become much more comfortable being aggressive on the short side.
Having a higher time frame bias doesn't mean ignoring what's right in front of you.
I'm still HTF bearish on BTC. Nothing has changed there. But we're trading into a meaningful area and the market is starting to show some signs of slowing down.
That's not a reason to flip. It's a reason to be objective. One of the mistakes I've made in the past after being positioned for a larger move like this is becoming too attached to the directional bias that's already played out and stop paying attention.
Right now I'm interested in whether some of these alts at range lows can put in any sort of relief move, even if BTC only manages a reversion bounce back into the local daily trend.
No rush though. Looking for proper triggers. No reason to try catching a falling knife.
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Having a higher time frame bias doesn't mean ignoring what's right in front of you.
I'm still HTF bearish on BTC. Nothing has changed there. But we're trading into a meaningful area and the market is starting to show some signs of slowing down.
That's not a reason to flip. It's a reason to be objective. One of the mistakes I've made in the past after being positioned for a larger move like this is becoming too attached to the directional bias that's already played out and stop paying attention.
Right now I'm interested in whether some of these alts at range lows can put in any sort of relief move, even if BTC only manages a reversion bounce back into the local daily trend.
No rush though. Looking for proper triggers. No reason to try catching a falling knife.
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$BTC
We traded into the 62's and the macro lows✅Majority of the position has now been closed, with a small runner left. The framework for this has been outlined in the previous tweet.
From here, I think it largely pays to be objective and acknowledge that we're trading into the range lows. The reaction here will be telling for both BTC and alts across the board.
$BTC
65’s area traded✅Secured a larger chunk of the position here compared to the first small partials. I treat this area as more significant due to it being the bottom structure prior to the D1 trend reclaim that initiated this counter-trend rally.
From here I’ll look to de-risk into the 62’s, while keeping a runner. Simultaneously I'll be actively looking for a trigger for a potential reversion play back into the daily trend.
Framework for the runner:
- D1 300MA (54K) or,
- Weekly trend reclaim or,
- Abnormal/significant event.
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