Joined May 2011
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Pinned Tweet
23 May 2022
They say that most amateur tennis matches are lost, not won. I.e., it isn't about hitting winners but about avoiding mistakes. Just keep returning the ball and it will work out.
I think that's more true in investing than many of us want to admit.
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This is definitely dumb, but the valuation was dumb at the IPO.
Once it is illogical, there's nothing to stop it from becoming MORE illogical.
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Which "reform" will Warsh pursue first?
67%
Smaller balance sheet
17%
Eliminate dot plot
17%
Fewer post-FOMC pressers
0%
Trimmed mean inflation
6 votes • 18 hours
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Tom Graff🔸 retweeted
.@Gavekal: “between 1996 and 2000, US telecom companies spent roughly US$500bn on internet and broadband infrastructure, or US$930bn in inflation-adjusted terms. Today’s AI capex boom is…roughly equal to 7x the internet capex boom.”
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I've argued many times that Fed overcommunication is a problem. I'm not sure Warsh and I quite agree on *why* it is a problem though. To me it is all about credibility. 1/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The Fed started doing forward guidance in 2008-2009, when they needed to shock the market into believing ZIRP was here to stay. That was probably right at the time.
There's no need to use this tool so heavily now. Bring FG back during the next crisis if need be. 7/
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Lastly, many media reports are saying less guidance would mean more volatility. I don't agree.
Rather, we'll get less vol around Fed speech and more vol around data.
That's for the best TBH. There's more signal in that regime, both for traders and the Fed itself. (fin)
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Jun 15
I'm not sure a lot of people who don't work closely with universities are aware of this issue. I'm on the board of the business school at @LoyolaMaryland, and our enrollment is doing just fine, but the shift in competition is very real, and will only get tougher.
Jun 14
Syracuse announced a financial deficit this week after missing their enrollment target. They cite demographics geopolitics, but the answer is much simpler:
There are 5.7k higher ed institutions in the US, charging way too much for something that is worth less than ever
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Jun 13
I think this is correct. I'm not sure it means the existing providers will necessarily reap the rewards.
Jun 13
when storage became cheaper → we stored everything
when bandwidth became cheaper → we streamed everything
when trade commissions became cheaper → we traded everything
when AI token prices BECOME cheaper → ❓❓❓
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Jun 12
Since today has a very 1999 feel... who remembers Stewart?
"Let's light this candle"
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Tom Graff🔸 retweeted
Jun 12
When will SpaceX shares fall below $135? @YahooFinance
21%
Today
45%
Within 90 days
14%
Within a year
20%
Never
322 votes • Final results
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Tom Graff🔸 retweeted
Jun 11
Jalen Brunson post Game 4: "Before we start…
My thoughts & prayers are with a friend of mine I got to meet last week. Jonathan from North Carolina. From Make a Wish Foundation
They asked me to make a video. But something told me to Facetime…
I got the pleasure to do so…Quick call but well worth it.
My thoughts and prayers are with him and his family…
May God rest his soul"
(Reporter asks question)
Jalen (can't answer): "Sorry…"
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Jun 12
IMV, worrying that these huge IPOs will sap equity demand is the flip side of the perennial "cash on the sideslines" claim.
I find neither compelling TBH.
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