Joined February 2018
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Feb 18
Pirata began as an experiment, but quickly evolved into a real passion for trading and finding edge in what was the wild west of financial markets. As we weathered the storm of large P&L swings during COVID and the FTX collapse, we steadily improved until market participation became more disciplined and repeatable.
Thank you, @tradertrader350, for the hard work and mentorship from day one. A significant portion of what I know about executing in markets—both structurally and at a nuanced level—comes from your insights. We would not have been so successful without you.
I’m proud of what we built and achieved with Pirata and believe now is the ideal time to sunset the brand. The business of trading and investing across markets remains, albeit ever-changing.
Reflecting on this chapter has me looking forward to the next ones!
1/ After seven years navigating and building in the crypto markets, we’ve decided to sunset Pirata Capital Management. We’re deeply grateful to the partners, founders, traders, and friends who supported us along the way and we’re excited for what comes next.
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3/7 ✅
Privacy/anti centralization resurgence a bit, 200w ma tagged, and inflation scare
Clearly wrong on prediction markets (I kind of like trading on them actually lol) and tokenization. While the 110th tokenization company will fail, I underestimated Hyperliquid's potential for stocks.
TBD on BTC dominance but at this point you'd need quite the change of tides to move it that high after its bled lower
Midterms will be interesting to trade. If you assume the market has cracks that only Bessent can patch over, it'll be harder for crime szn to continue and thus the centralization narrative in stocks
Jan 2
Some 2026 predictions for fun:
- people start to realize prediction markets have no user base. Valuations look awful and VCs get cooked or the writing is on the wall for them at least. Everyone says "of course, bc no liquidity"
- tokenization stalls, onchain stock trading volumes baseline/crater. Nothing moves on the adoption front for tokenization from major tradfi institutions. Becomes a doomed "pilot/testing" crypto use case again
- BTC dominance gets back to 70-80%. A lot of L1s fall under their last VC/ICO investment price. Theres a crazy Hyperliquid type price run for an alt over months not just weeks tho
- dems win midterms, but markets don't panic afterwards. People panic leading up and frontrun the event. Great buy opportunity. Markets like when politics can't interfere and thus can't do anything with splits across presidency/senate/house
- inflation scare at some point in H1 2026. People blame tariffs, bad for Trump. Stimmies get sent out for PR purposes for midterms and UBI or something akin to it gets thrown around by Trump or Bessent
- core crypto philosophies (privacy in trading, identity anonymity, self custody, hard money, etc) start a brand new resurgence of sorts in interest from core crypto natives
- BTC hits the 200w smma ($55-60k). "Four year cycle was never over" crowd comes out in full force (me included kek). Likely recovers faster than ever tho. Leverage is punished, but spot holders brush it off over a few months
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Jun 14
Back into $CARDS from ~$0.26, but heavier now that buybacks have started. Will be interesting to see if they end up at a particular cadence.
Hype TP hit at $61, but holding what's left of the ETH short for now. Building a short pump / maybe long spcx position. Hoping for a weekend HL nuke on some dumb headline
Spent like 7 hours today just building with the robot. Pretty amazing what you can still do with Opus and ultra code to build around a thesis. Try to map a tokens vesting wallets and build a multi device alert system. Its not as hard as you think
It's easier than ever to build/refute conviction in an idea. Pretty insane time to be alive when we can pay for tools that improve our trading skills multiples over, and then trade the things directly involved in improving us. Ggwp
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Jun 13
Fable on max max effort is another level when reasoning into coding, based on mostly context but minimal technical direction. Happy I managed to get a full audit of half of everything and two killer features scoped in ways I never would've been able to consider. It would be a shame to lose this
The models getting too strong (assuming that's true and this isn't just for show) isn't great for the AI trade if you play it out a few steps. In hindsight no one would guess this is what would be the thing to slow it down either
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Jun 12
Back down to $0.41, but now with maker rewards within 3c
It seems like if you can predict where attention will go, you can predict which markets Polymarket will incentivize
It must be big enough to get mainstream attention (ie elections, rate hikes, etc) and thus be valuable to Polymarket
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Jun 12
Liquidity also slightly better now, I may try to slowly add more. There's sure to be some vol on this around Warsh's first fomc meeting/presser
Generally I want to build an MSTR short, ETH short and "2026 Rate Hike: Yes" positions into mid/late summer as tactical hedges against what is still almost 80% long equities
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Jun 12
Don't listen to the Saylor Prague videos, you'll want to short everything he touches with full force and his destruction is gonna take longer than you can remain solvent
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Jun 11
So we removed all duties and got higher inflation as a result
"Art of the deal"
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Jun 10
I've been trying to find edge in AI tooling for the last 3-4 months now. Largely its been convenience focused: improving processes and reducing time required online. The edge has remained flat, outside of what I myself can do with more information or more time.
Recently I'm thinking that the edge is actually at the model level, not what the model can build. Dictating a schematic to the model of myself will better allow it to understand what I want it to build. I need to build its memory and understanding of me first before asking that it give me something I need.
Anything it gleans from me afterwards, like what I don't know I need built, is the real, compoundable edge. The dictation is key because it allows me to provide more real context, more quickly.
Fable is exciting, but so much of this is still a black box. There's so much opportunity right now in actually USING the AI, not just investing in it
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Jun 9
Is this the part where I short crypto but it doesn't break range and stocks puke to MAs?
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Jun 9
Some bear market musings on where we're headed and when to bid...
Feels like we've entered the start of the time capitulation phase for crypto
The stock bull market likely doesn't completely die considering the amount of consistent inflation and job growth needed to guarantee rate hikes. These companies are making so much money as well
Without a new catalyst for Bitcoin, it remains the sleepy giant, but now with a disease that is Saylor, unresolvable FUD that is quantum and a lack of interest in the orange coin from crypto natives who are searching for the next 'truth' (Privacy! Perps! Pokemon!)
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Jun 9
Unless we get an extreme capitulation moment with Saylor I think we're likely to get a slow bleed/chop lower in price for the next 18mo, instead of an outright buying opportunity. We've begun this already, with a new range now likely being $55-70k instead of the $65-80k earlier this year.
This makes it difficult to "buy and forget" instead of just simply waiting for the new catalyst and bidding into strength and momentum. Had you bought the FTX blow up last cycle, you were pretty quickly bailed out back above $20k. There was no AI capex or IPO season to compete with, the stock market itself was destroyed by rate hikes and we got a full cleanse of the crypto markets.
This time around I think it might be better to remain in boomer land until the coast is clear and a new catalyst appears. Instead of buying sub $20k on the FTX blowup, perhaps waiting for the CoinTelegraph headline and bidding $30k is the better option.
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Jun 9
Uh, yeah. Just my thoughts ladies and gentlemen. Just what I'm feelin at the time, ya know what I mean?
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Jun 9
Yes, of course you should bid, because historically if bubbles pop and people get rekt they immediately yeet the asset class that has performed the worst for the last two years
Makes total sense
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Jun 8
Saylor desperately needs the AI bubble to continue or he's cooked
If stocks continue to roll over he'll be the first to get slaughtered, ironically. Hard to keep selling stock if the buyers are 💀
Something something different but it rhymes
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Jun 5
Gonna hold this for now
Bought some atm Sept MSTR puts on Wednesday at ~$134 as well. Everything else is stabled on the active book
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Finch retweeted
Jun 5
Identify the problems (liabilities):
1. Annual interest on debt and dividends on preferred obligations (~$1.7B)
2. Balloon debt obligations maturing in 2028-2032 (~$6.7B)
Solve the problems:
A. Stop making it worse. Stop levering up and adding recurring cash obligations.
B. Protect against 1. Build a cash reserve that covers annual obligations through first debt balloon maturity.
C. Protect against 2. Delever the balance sheet by reducing debt obligations ahead of 2028.
They need to raise some cash to alleviate near-term concerns and start using bounces as liquidity/deleveraging opportunities instead of re-leveraging events. It’s not going to collapse overnight and the market will have fits and bouts of panic but they have a long time runway so the extremes in both directions are opportunities for unbiased investors.
For example, raising STRC dividend rate to 12% to keep their word would cost an additional ~$50M per year which is only ~10 bps of added common dilution. I’d imagine they raise it again to assuage investor concerns and avoid jail after advertising it as a zero volatility high yield bank account for the average joe. Given that view, STRC at $92 is probably a good entry for a trade back towards par. MSTR is just an avoid or short big bounces until BTC puts in a more durable bottom in Q3/Q4.
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Jun 8
Are there more or less bullish crypto catalysts today?
Are there more or less bearish crypto catalysts today?
Sometimes the hardest thing is being patient
7 Apr 2025
I don't love crypto here still until we get some sort of shorter term catalyst. If you assume we remain a beta asset to TradFi, then stonks are a better option here
Yes crypto will outperform on the relief bounce, punt away, but outside of some near term decision that leads to more money printing/stimulus I think stonks are the better r:r for the next 12mo
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Jun 5
What's the rate hike news? That market is up like 25% today
May 19
In the meantime...
- I like 'Fed Rate Hike in 2026' on Polymarket (in from $0.318)
- I like QQQ puts
- I like farming 'No' on the dictators (Putin and Xi) for 10-15% easy money with the 4% earn function on Polymarket
polymarket.com/predictions/e…
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