Societies are facing imminent collapse.
“The closure of Hormuz has taken 34% of globally-traded crude oil, 12% of refined petroleum, 20% of LNG offline. It has taken 30% of urea and 25% of ammonia offline, putting the northern planting season at risk in the largest shock to food production in generations. Some 20% of aluminum production if offline too. In the chips supply chain, in addition to the LNG, 35% of helium, 60% of bromine, and 44% of sulphur are now offline.
Unless the war ends soon and Hormuz is reopened, this will be the single greatest stagflationary shock in the history of the modern world economy. And the costs are cumulative. The longer the war lasts, the greater the stagflationary shock and the more central banks must respond by monetary tightening.”