The New Normal: There is a mental model that we will adjust to now, while the market does it for us. The current state IS the new normal, or very close to it. Iran has already set up a state agency to collect tolls in The SOH. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority. News of which has been strangely lacking on any major news channels. You won’t read about this in CNN, FOX etc. Just another cut in the weeping Petrodollar wound. #OOTT theoilreport.substack.com/p/…

Well, finally everyones waking up. Hike not cut and Inflation cometh

The Oil & Gas memes are back

Here’s how the leaked barrels are shaping up so far. Stripping out Iran, the flow cleared the market at a clip of around 3mb/d through June. #oott #iran

MAERSK: AT THIS STAGE, THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO OUR OPERATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST REGION

Soh won’t move much for at least 3-4 weeks , must be next cycle

IT IS EMBARRASSING DONALD

Peeps out here saying that these SPR draws are not as big as 2022......welllll actually....... #oott

Apperentlyu the world is about to end in 48hrs because of the SpaceX IPO. Welp.....its been a blast...

This is where the uk/ireland is right now.

Congratulations to the Irish government. You fucked around.....and now you find out.

Looks like they are continuing to deleverage out of Gold to fund this equities train...Ill be waiting at $3500 with the butterfly net #gold

I think now is as good a time as any to say this. But the world is not ready for what is about to hit over the next 8 weeks. Energy access (fossil) is about to get restricted like society has NEVER experienced.

Trading the Energy Supercycle: Part 1. The Convergence: Oil Capex Falls 55% as AI Drives Electricity Demand | Energy Supercycle Part 1. #OOTT theoilreport.substack.com/p/…

Very, very cool long term time series on interest rates going back several hundred years from the BoE. Bravo!

Morgan Stanley goes there

DO NOT BRING THIS FINCH HORSE SHIT AROUND HERE EVER AGAIN

Jeff Currie, former Goldman Sachs head of commodities and now at Kalo writing research, is watching a physical supply shock in the commodities market. This is a tale of two markets. Paper crude oil was sitting around $100 a barrel while physical crude being delivered into Asia was trading between $130-$170. Products like jet fuel were spiraling above $200. The spread between paper and physical has completely disconnected. On the physical side: a discount airline out of London Gatwick canceled all flights because they couldn't source fuel. The UK just took its last known kerosene shipment with no further arrivals scheduled. Singapore jet fuel spiked to $230 a barrel. Rotterdam hit $220. The shortage is now in Thailand, Philippines, New Zealand and Australia. Currie called it "molecular contagion." And here's the critical point: there is no policy fix for this. The supply shock is roughly equal in magnitude to the COVID demand shock. And we all watched what COVID did to global supply chains. Currie's framing: the paper markets have disconnected from reality. When crude is trading at $100 on NYMEX but delivering into Asia at $130-170, someone is wrong. He thinks it's the paper market. The mispricing window doesn't stay open forever. For macro investors, this is exactly the kind of dislocation between financial prices and real-world supply chains that historically creates the biggest moves.