being transparent...
over the last 4 weeks, i have been building a
@polymarket and
@trylimitless prediction market bot
my best bot on paper right now is paper bot 2.1
- currently sitting at a 63% win rate
- made over $1,500 on paper using a flat $1 stake
- over 6,000 combined trades across polymarket and limitless
> here is the biggest problem
fill prices...
for the strategy to actually stay profitable at a 63% win rate, the bot needs to fill orders below 60% odds
but the issue is liquidity on both polymarket and limitless
most of the time:
- orders do not fill
- or they fill at much worse prices
so instead of consistent profitability...
it becomes a slow bleed
> now i have changed the entire approach
i am currently building a new strategy that tries to get filled around 50c immediately when markets open
personally, i have not really seen anyone build this properly yet
if i can make this profitable under real market conditions...
it could genuinely become something special
the codebase is now over 13,000 lines deep
and every week it becomes more sophisticated
still building...
and i truly believe this could become a million-dollar trading bot someday
and even if it fails...
at least i know i gave it everything i had