One thing that’s becoming very clear in commercial real estate right now:
A lot of people want to explain what happened.
Very few want to admit what they participated in.
Everyone suddenly has a list of excuses:
- rates went up
- insurance exploded
- rents flattened
- the Fed changed everything
But the truth is, most of this behavior didn’t start in 2022.
The seeds were planted years earlier when people stopped caring about what an asset was actually worth.
Back around 2014–2016, while working at Marcus & Millichap, multifamily deals commonly traded at 8–10 caps. Deals actually penciled. There was room for error. Basis mattered.
Then I saw something that completely changed the tone of the market.
We had listed an overpriced and rough 1960s vintage deal that everyone knew was overpriced. Then a buyer came in around a 5.5 cap and justified it by saying:
“The banks are lending at 4%, so that spread makes the deal works.”
That was the first time I heard someone justify permanently overpaying for an asset because of a temporary interest rate environment.
And that mentality slowly became the entire industry.
At first the logic was:
“Lock in a low rate for a long term and the deal will work.”
Then in 2022, even that wasn’t enough anymore.
People started justifying to buy with *negative* leverage while assuming rents would continue growing 10% annually forever.
Underwriting went from aggressive to complete fantasy.
And here’s the uncomfortable part:
Most GPs weren’t creating some revolutionary business.
They weren’t inventing technology.
They weren’t building anything unique.
Their actual skill was raising money and telling a compelling story around a deal.
Which is fine, IF your number one responsibility is protecting investor capital.
But then another layer entered the picture: feeder funds.
When you raise money from friends, family, neighbors, or your community, there’s emotional accountability. You know exactly whose money is at risk.
Feeder funds created distance from responsibility.
Now people were:
- overpaying because rates were low
- accepting negative yield because “rents always go up”
- and doing it with money that no longer felt personally connected to real people
That combination destroyed discipline.
Fast forward to today:
Many of the same people who bought absurd deals with negative leverage and fantasy assumptions are now acting like nobody could have possibly seen this coming.
That’s nonsense.
The entire job of a GP is risk management.
You don’t get to call yourself a genius during the run-up and then blame “unexpected conditions” when the cycle turns.
And honestly, watching all of this unfold has likely twisted a lot of the love we all once had for this industry.
Somewhere along the way, too many people stopped respecting the basic math and replaced discipline with narratives.
But the only way this industry actually heals is if people stop rewriting history and start telling the truth about what happened.