$OUST's base case is $1B in revenue by 2030, assuming 30%–50% annual growth, which would imply a $10B–$20B market cap at a 10x–20x P/S multiple.
That said, I believe
$OUST will surpass the $1B revenue mark by a wide margin, driven by last week's Amazon news and production ramp-ups from existing large customers.
The potential order volume for Amazon's new Proteus platform could reach 1 million sensors, compared to previous generation Proteus of only 30k–50k sensors, because the working areas are now significantly expanded and . That alone could translate into up to $4B in additional revenue for
@ousterlidar, even before considering any software revenue.
In that scenario, we're looking at up to $5B in total revenue and $50B ~$100B market cap.
And that's without factoring in potential new customers adopting Ouster following the Rev8 launch. I believe many customers—especially robotaxi players such as
@zoox,
@Waymo,
@Avrideai, and
@aurora_inno—could transition away from Chinese or in-house-developed sensors and toward Ouster. Geopolitical trends only add further tailwinds.
Meanwhile,
$OUST's market cap today is just $2.4B.