Joined January 2021
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$SBSW is getting killed lately. You can say its because Gold/PGM is falling, but its almost as true when you price it in the minerals it mines.
Note how little it climbed in its last spike when priced in metals.
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Euro gas has rarely been so cheap compared to Asian gas. The chart shows that Asia gets outbid as market strain increases, which raises the question: if 25% of global LNG is currently offline, why isn't the market showing strain? TTF could triple compared to JKM from here.
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$XOM is about to fall out of the channel it held since the start of this, but at the same time, its value priced in oil continues to rise.
Insane that oil is still falling with these shortages, but what can I say at this point that I haven't already said?
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EscapeFromUtopia retweeted
The Current State of International Affairs...
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Offical EU data on the ENTSOG portal shows a massive downspike on LNG imports yesterday. I wonder if that get's fixed. If true, it would be the lowest June import level ever. No euro country storage levels have really risen in the last couple days. I guess we'll see.
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Since an account is accusing me of being bearish $silver, I just want to be clear. Still long, still holding. Silver has reconnected with the longterm uptrend, and bottomed out on the daily RSI. While up isn't as simple as the green arrow, I think we go up when seasonality shifts
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I was impressed when oil was no longer overbought in the midst of an oil crisis. 2B barrels later, its close to being oversold on the daily. If this was "demand destruction" you would see prices flame out and stabalize around 100. This is complete manipulation. It will end poorly
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Today I'm up 2.4% but still down for the week. Metals euphoria was insane today (9 of my stocks were up 10% ), but nothing changed with energy. There's still no deal that's acceptable to America, Iran, and Israel. Too many deal breakers.
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To make it easy, I've circled the reaction to all the war and missle headlines in red, and the peace headline in green. Something tells me that one wont get faded like the rest.
So unbelievably fake, and I do mean that. Only the algos believe markets work like this.
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$Oil down on the news Trump plans to intensify bombing and take Kharg island. You just can't make this up.
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Oil price divided by official inflation data. We're nowhere near the top of the historical channel (not that I believe offical inflation data.)
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$TTF is still well below its March highs, but rising steadily higher. EU imports are increasing again too. June is the lowest point, seasonaly, if you look at futures curves. Next month seasonality will be in european gas's favor in addition to supply.
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I'm surprised the ECB actually raised instead of jawboned. Cruel thing to do to the German economy, but that might be the point. I still expect the coming energy crisis to weaken the currency.
The euro is nothing but a series of crises.
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Metals aside, I just can't believe that missiles are flying and oil is red. Literally insane. The market has been hammered so hard that people have just opted out. Look at the volume. Completely crushed.
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$silver looks almost as weak as gold. Each time it loses sight of the ATH it shows no strength until it moves past the descending resistance, but the last couple of weeks have just been wretched.
Blue is the previous bear market overlaid on current price action.
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Really pathetic bounce on $gold this morning. Black arrow indicates where oversold on the monthly would be, not where I think we are going. We spent a week at these low levels 2 years ago, and 2 weeks 3 years ago, but its hard to imagine going lower without a bounce first.
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$Gold is all the way down to RSI 25 on the daily. Most oversold its been in almost 2 years. It's reached this level 6 times in the last decade.
The decade low for daily RSI is 19, which it would hit with a crash to $3900 or so.
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