Bitcoin has crashed every single time a new Fed Chair was sworn in
On May 15, Jerome Powell officially steps down and Kevin Warsh takes his seat. And there’s one interesting pattern here 👇
— Yellen comes in (2014) → BTC -80%
— Powell (2018) → BTC -74%
— Powell (2022) → BTC -62%
The pattern is compressing every cycle. Following that logic, Warsh could bring ~-50%. So is the market maturing, or is the pattern dying precisely because everyone already knows about it?
Current macro picture Warsh is inheriting: BTC near €69K, US inflation at 3.3%, rates at 3.5–3.75%, oil around €92–95. One of the messiest handoffs in Fed Chair history.
Worth noting that Warsh is one of the rare Fed candidates who publicly called Bitcoin “an important asset.” Whether that breaks the pattern is an open question.
The market has known for three months he’s coming, so if the pattern holds, it may have already partially played out. Maybe the current correction is that crash, just spread out over time.
But crashes usually happen without warning. This one was announced. So what happens to a predictable crash? Either it gets played out in advance, or it doesn’t happen at all because everyone's already in cash.