golf and some trades ⛳️
Joined September 2008
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Had an enlightening experience on the 19th hole .. interesting experiences can be had at the bar ⛳️
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randomly sitting next to us at the bar, 57 yr old with his son and few others.. tells me how he invested his money into few years back... then continues to talk about his babies mamas. then i'm like ok hes struggling. then he pulls out pics of his lambo and maserati and tells me the ai stocks he went all in on were up 1600%.. all of a suddon we're drinking top shelf and scheduling tee times. life on the 19th bros
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Jun 14
$SPX Five times since 2020 the market's order book has gone this thin: COVID, the SVB weekend, the yen-carry unwind, the tariff break.. and Thursday. We flagged it midweek.. top-of-book depth $4.15M vs a $12M norm (Goldman). The first four each marked a tradeable low within a week. This was the fifth.
The low held at 7,232. The strange part is how: with no fear at all. No $VIX spike, no put deluge, no washed-out breadth. The strongest lows usually need capitulation to print first. This one skipped it. Big money just absorbed the flush and bought.
That's the paradox that runs the week. A low that holds without panic is the stronger kind.. and it also means there's no fear left in the system, no cushion. Both true at once.
The Lie (our -5 to 5 read on whether the trend is confirmed underneath.. breadth, positioning, vol, rotation) went -4 to 1 in a week. The repair is real: A/D momentum 20 (was -23), breadth 62% (was 50%), VIX 17.68 (was 21.5).
Under the surface, the broadening nobody's pricing: equal-weight $SPX and the Russell $RTY printed fresh all-time highs Friday while the cap-weight index still lags. We called the Russell's four-year base in April.. own the names, not the index. Same names still leading.
So the risk isn't the chart. It's that nobody's hedged.. options the cheapest of the year.. into Kevin Warsh's first FOMC Wednesday, inflation at a 3-year high.
1 CONSTRUCTIVE. Long while 7,374 holds. Buy dips, don't chase into the Fed.
The turn held. Now the Fed.
lobwedge.substack.com/p/the-…
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Jun 12
Bounced right off 7365 ⛳️ $spx
Jun 11
$SPX Sunday at -4 we wrote: a falling market with a rising score is the buy signal. Watch the sequence, not the price.
Three days later ES traded 165 points lower. The score? Rising.
The map this week: the roof at 7,484 got tagged Tuesday.. 7,491 high, then -244 points. The floor broke Wednesday and the air pocket we drew filled to 7,270 inside the same session. Both reload shelves bounced on first touch. The overnight one has paid 65 points and counting.
The hedge bought at the year's cheapest vol hit max value. Closed it. Nothing left to earn.
The Lie (our weekly -5 to 5 score for whether the index trend is confirmed underneath.. breadth, positioning, vol, rotation) reads -2. Was -4 Sunday. Price fell while the score rose, and that's the design: the danger of being long gets spent on the way down, not at the bottom.
What turned: Equal weight beat the index 5 straight sessions. More new 52-week highs than lows Monday AND Tuesday.. inside the worst week of the year. Participation 50% to 62% in three days. Institutions bought Wednesday's flush, the heaviest buying since the April low.
$ORCL beat everything, added $85B of AI contracts in one quarter, and fell 10% on the $40B bill that came with it. Demand confirmed, funding repriced.
What didn't turn: the fear. Real lows print it. Check it yourself: A/D momentum in the -60s? It's -18. Total put/call above 1.0? It's 0.92. $VIX above 25? It's 22.
Zero of three. Same as Friday. That's why first bounces fail.. selling gets exhausted, not scared away.
The wrinkle: ES top-of-book depth is $4.15M against a $12M norm (GS desk). Thinnest since COVID, SVB, the carry unwind, and the tariff break. All four marked a tradeable low within a week. But the trend machines crossed their first sell trigger Wednesday.. $46B of systematic supply in a down tape vs $2B in an up one.
Liquidity says the low is near. Fear says it isn't proven. The touch pays a bounce. The reclaim pays the turn.
Ahead: PPI 30Y auction Thursday. SpaceX prices tonight, lists Friday.. $75B of new paper.
Warsh's first FOMC Tue-Wed. Quad witch is THURSDAY this quarter, Juneteenth closes Friday.
Quarter at the shelf. The add on the reclaim. Size only at fear.
lobwedge.substack.com/p/find…
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Jun 11
retaliation dip, taco rip, its tee time sunday... another masterclass.
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Jun 11
$SPX Sunday at -4 we wrote: a falling market with a rising score is the buy signal. Watch the sequence, not the price.
Three days later ES traded 165 points lower. The score? Rising.
The map this week: the roof at 7,484 got tagged Tuesday.. 7,491 high, then -244 points. The floor broke Wednesday and the air pocket we drew filled to 7,270 inside the same session. Both reload shelves bounced on first touch. The overnight one has paid 65 points and counting.
The hedge bought at the year's cheapest vol hit max value. Closed it. Nothing left to earn.
The Lie (our weekly -5 to 5 score for whether the index trend is confirmed underneath.. breadth, positioning, vol, rotation) reads -2. Was -4 Sunday. Price fell while the score rose, and that's the design: the danger of being long gets spent on the way down, not at the bottom.
What turned: Equal weight beat the index 5 straight sessions. More new 52-week highs than lows Monday AND Tuesday.. inside the worst week of the year. Participation 50% to 62% in three days. Institutions bought Wednesday's flush, the heaviest buying since the April low.
$ORCL beat everything, added $85B of AI contracts in one quarter, and fell 10% on the $40B bill that came with it. Demand confirmed, funding repriced.
What didn't turn: the fear. Real lows print it. Check it yourself: A/D momentum in the -60s? It's -18. Total put/call above 1.0? It's 0.92. $VIX above 25? It's 22.
Zero of three. Same as Friday. That's why first bounces fail.. selling gets exhausted, not scared away.
The wrinkle: ES top-of-book depth is $4.15M against a $12M norm (GS desk). Thinnest since COVID, SVB, the carry unwind, and the tariff break. All four marked a tradeable low within a week. But the trend machines crossed their first sell trigger Wednesday.. $46B of systematic supply in a down tape vs $2B in an up one.
Liquidity says the low is near. Fear says it isn't proven. The touch pays a bounce. The reclaim pays the turn.
Ahead: PPI 30Y auction Thursday. SpaceX prices tonight, lists Friday.. $75B of new paper.
Warsh's first FOMC Tue-Wed. Quad witch is THURSDAY this quarter, Juneteenth closes Friday.
Quarter at the shelf. The add on the reclaim. Size only at fear.
lobwedge.substack.com/p/find…
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Jun 11
$SPX seasonality for next 2 weeks June
→ chop into the Fed (Jun 16-17)
→ Jun 18 = June's worst day on average
→ buyers usually show up OpEx week (Jun 19-23)
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Jun 11
100 pt rotations off levels has been the action. right off 7235. but does it hold
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Jun 10
mkts finding some fair value ahead of spcx.. enjoy the golf day
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