dynamist
Joined October 2021
- Tweets 4,741
- Following 575
- Followers 646
- Likes 2,907
275 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
Feb 9
I will win
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Midas touch retweeted
May 25
I love this idea from Rick Rubin:
Focus only on making the best thing you can make. Excellence for its own sake.
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May 17
Just read Dostoevsky's The Gambler. A few thoughts -
Dostoevsky is such a master at displaying psychological traits in humans on a level few can even perceive, let alone put into words. What makes it even more fascinating is that the novel's main character, Alexei Ivanovich, is modeled on Dostoevsky himself.
It's a story of how destitute one could become if he isn't careful with the activities one partakes in. It's an obvious illustration from the outside perspective that certain activities bear little to no yield. Yet the story is what gets us going. The story of changing one's life through a single bet. Just the opposite of a sound strategy. But here is the thing - the mind becomes absolutely ungrounded, and even when the win comes, it's short-lived.
It's a trap that even the greatest minds fall into. Dostoevsky himself had his life chased by creditors, for money he'd borrowed to gamble - and The Gambler itself was written under a brutal deadline to escape those very debts. The book diagnosing the disease was written as a symptom of it. Gambling in its purest form. Where the edge is nowhere to be had.
It's a story about perspective. That no one is immune to gambling's alluring characteristics.
I can't help but draw a parallel with the trading world. For most people it's pure gambling. Even for seasoned traders, when emotions run high - and they inevitably do - all strategy becomes obsolete. It devolves into gambling. The moment it becomes gambling for you, where you are desperate to make it back - just stop. Walk away. Give yourself a break. Don't feel too bad either. If geniuses are not immune to this - us mere mortals for sure aren't.
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Apr 28
progress happens when opposing forces clash and are transformed into a higher stage.
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Apr 28
can a thesis exist without its counter-part? the outcome is just a distribution of probabilities that merge in a single point at future time reference X
if you only have the thesis without the counter-thesis you are seeing 1/3 of hte picture.
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Apr 27
the problem with @xbt2027 experiment is you have to take into account that most people don't get it
so the rational choice which is a really obvious one, yet its completely mispriced because people don't see it as the most obvious one
yes, he constrcted the game in a way that its not really obvious but based on ppls reaction there is a correct choice.
anyway if I'm correct that will be only short term which only makes the opportunity window higher
so I guess that's a feautre after all
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Apr 24
when knowledge becomes an abundant commodity, original ideas will be even more so in shorter supply
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Apr 24
that's why it will always be good to be an original *and irght* investor
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Apr 20
at this point eth maxxers are mogging hard the solhairnoodles
similar coin launched on sol smb couldn't cross 250k~
Apr 20
The PUNK token debuted last night and soared 200,000% to $10M
~40% of the supply was airdropped to Punk holders, and that airdrop is now worth ~$1,300
NFT stimmy SZN...
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Apr 19
the problem with DeFi is that AI is coming. if Mythos was able to find 0 days in projects around for 10s of years like FFmpeg (one of the most important open-source projects for video processing and streaming. think youtube / twitch etc.) imagine what it does to DeFi protocols
and exploiters are already finding a lot of loopholes without access to the most capable model. right now if you are advanced AI researcher, the easiest way to make money prob is to exploit one of the DeFi protocols. now imagine if everyone had access to it.
do they care enough to patch it faster than it could be exploited?
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Apr 19
heard it here first
Apr 17
volume 20% less; mcap 2.5x higher
chain difference
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Apr 17
i think that optics for memecoins are starting to improve see things improving. more buys than sells (example attached) but the fact that spwaning a 11m coin with 30m volume sucks the liquidity out of all other memes - means that there is still room for improvement on the right path though!
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Apr 17
not sure why everyone is complaining this stuff is ez
is it the eth OG (because Musk coins should be on eth) the one where the spelling is different; the one on pump because its the largest launchpad duh; or the one where there is a potential for claim?
not to mention all other vamps; these are the ones that survived
now funnel all this into 1 coin - and you already had a 9 fig runner
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Apr 16
I mean @dwarkesh_sp missed the most simple and non-ambiguous argument.
If you give China broader access to nvidia GPUs they will have the upper hand due to the vast energy they produce
Its 2.5x more than the US on a LARGE scale (10TWh vs 4 TWh)
also; its clear that they still need the nvidia GPUs; remember the super micro computer co-founder that was smuggling H100s to China? he wouldn't risk that if they really didn't need it.
key arguments that Jensen makes that I disagree
1) America should not adopt a loser mindset -> that's not a loser mindset, it's playing to your advantage (China has more energy and a lot of highly efficient researchers, while US has the momentum. Give them equal access to the resources and more energy and they have the upper hand)
2) China's strict control on business can be beneficial when its about speed of execution. They don't have to lobby. What they think is the best, they can implement (no need to go through consensus)
but I get it; China is a large market; from a business perspective it makes a lot of sense.
Apr 15
Distilled recap of the back-and-forth with Jensen on export controls:
Dwarkesh: Wouldn’t selling Nvidia chips to China enable them to train models like Claude Mythos with cyber offensive capabilities that would be threats to American companies and national security?
Jensen: First of all, Mythos was trained on fairly mundane capacity and a fairly mundane amount of it by an extraordinary company. The amount of capacity and the type of compute it was trained on is abundantly available in China.
Dwarkesh: With that, could they eventually train a model like Mythos? Yes. But the question is, because we have more FLOPs, American labs are able to get to this level of capabilities first. Furthermore, even if they trained a model like this, the ability to deploy it at scale matters. If you had a cyber hacker, it's much more dangerous if they have a million of them versus a thousand of them.
Jensen: Your premise is just wrong. The fact of the matter is their AI development is going just fine. The best AI researchers in the world, because they are limited in compute, also come up with extremely smart algorithms. DeepSeek is not an inconsequential advance. The day that DeepSeek comes out on Huawei first, that is a horrible outcome for our nation.
Dwarkesh: Currently, you can have a model like DeepSeek that can run on any accelerator if it's open source. Why would that stop being the case in the future?
Jensen: Suppose it optimizes for Huawei. Suppose it optimizes for their architecture. It would put others at a disadvantage. As AI diffuses out into the rest of the world, their standards and their tech stack will become superior to ours because their models are open.
Dwarkesh: Tesla sold extremely good electric vehicles to China for a long time. iPhones are sold in China. They didn't cause some lock-in. China will still make their version of EVs, and they're dominating, or smartphones, they're dominating.
Jensen: We are not a car. The fact that I can buy this car brand one day and use another car brand another day is easy. Computing is not like that. There's a reason why x86 still exists. There's a reason why Arm is so sticky. These ecosystems are hard to replace.
Dwarkesh: It's just hard to imagine that there's a long-term lock-in to the Chinese ecosystem, even if they have this slightly better open-source model for a while. American labs port across accelerators constantly. Anthropic's models are run on GPUs, they're run on Trainium, they're run on TPUs. There are so many things you can do, from distilling to a model that's well fit for your chips.
Jensen: China is the largest contributor to open source software in the world. China's the largest contributor to open models in the world. Today it's built on the American tech stack, Nvidia’s. Fact.
All five layers of the tech stack for AI are important. The United States ought to go win all five of them.
in a few years time, I'm making you the prediction that when we want American technology to be diffused around the world—out to India, out to the Middle East, out to Africa, out to Southeast Asia—on that day, I will tell you exactly about today's conversation, about how your policy ... caused the United States to concede the second largest market in the world for no good reason at all.
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