WFLA-TV (Tampa Bay) Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell U. MA Climate Columbia U. Past CBS News NY and Miami, Tampa, WPB
Joined November 2012
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10,034 Photos and videos
It persists. And sticks out like a sore thumb.
Ever since I started on #AMOC stability as a postdoc in 1991, there's been this "cold blob" in sea surface temperature trend since the year 1900. data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/m…
Over ocean it's ERSST data; for winter since that relates most to ocean heat transport (👉Caesar et al 2018).
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“But with rise of AI, scientists believe they can do even better: the technology has improved the prediction success rate by an average of between 15-30 percent over traditional models, according to atmospheric scientists at the University of Houston.”
independent.co.uk/climate-ch…
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4.4 standard deviations from the mean?!
To put into perspective how strong this El Niño has the “potential” to be, I plotted it on the Bell Curve/ distribution of all El Nino, La Niña, & neutral months since 1850 (over 2K). The dynamical model ensemble median forecast peak anomaly is 3.3°C in December 2026. Comparing against all Nino (3.4 region) values yields a value of 4.4 sigma for this event, plotted outside the extreme right tail, next to the current record of 2.8C in 2015. Keep in mind this is not the relative index, so it does not account for global warming, and the fact that higher SST anoms are easier to achieve now due to the higher starting baseline. #elnino 1/ 🧵
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Keep in mind ENSO anomalies are not exactly a normal distribution. But it’s close. Here’s the actual rough plot, before I cleaned it up for public consumption.
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Jun 14
Yes. Please stop annoying us about the Gulf. We are weather people, not politicians.
Jun 14
THE GULF: Let’s have a quick discussion this morning about “the Gulf”.
Earlier this morning, I posted the tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center, which referred to the “Gulf of America”.
I immediately received some nasty messages from people calling me everything from some type of “phobe” to a “racist”.
Last season I made the mistake of calling it the “Gulf of Mexico”, and was quick called a “libtard” and “communist”.
In an ocean of mindless intolerant political extremists that are not capable of critical thinking, they are always looking for a reason to attack someone, I guess this isn’t surprising.
In early 2025, the U.S. government directed federal agencies to use “Gulf of America” in certain official U.S. contexts, and some U.S.-based maps and documents adopted that terminology. It is used by all National Weather Service agencies.
However, many countries, international organizations, publishers, and maps continue to use “Gulf of Mexico”, which has been the standard name for centuries.
I do my best to simply say “the Gulf”. No doubt I will slip up and make the mistake of saying “Gulf of Mexico” or “Gulf of America” at times this hurricane season. I am asking that you have a little grace here. I don’t do politics here… I’m sorry. I am just a weather guy passing along information, sometimes very important.
Thank you.
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Jeff Berardelli retweeted
Jun 14
Victory
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Jun 12
It’s warming… faster.
Jun 12
The world has warmed by around 1.4C since 1850.
It took 148 years for the first half of that warming to occur, and just 27 years for the second half!
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Jun 12
If you are in the Tampa Bay Area join me tomorrow (Saturday) from 2-4pm to discuss the growing threat of heat, along with the @CityofTampa @CLEOInstitute @AARP @UTampaPress at the University of Tampa.
See you then! @FLcleanenergy
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Jeff Berardelli retweeted
Jun 12
Strong El Niño periods often appear as an upward stairstep in long-term plots of global temperatures — but this El Niño, because of its expected intensity, could be worth two stairsteps instead of one.
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Jun 12
It’s official: El Niño has arrived… and odds are it may be the strongest in over a century! So how does it compare to other strong El Niño events? And what kind of impacts can we expect in Hurricane Season and into the winter in #Florida and along the Gulf Coast. Here’s a quick breakdown. #ElNino #HurricaneSeason #SevereWeather
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Jun 12
Big rains for the Gulf Coast!! That includes the Western Panhandle… but unfortunately it will miss most of the #Florida Peninsula - for now. Tropical moisture - which NHC still gives a low development chance - will round the coast and bring downpours to Texas, Louisiana, MS, AL, GA and the Panhandle over the next 7 days. NOAA says a widespread few to several inches will fall.
#rain #florida
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Jun 11
The area near the #Galapagos Islands are impressively hot. About 6-10F above normal. Obviously this has very negative implications for wildlife on/around the islands and the coastal communities / fisherman in Ecuador, Peru, etc...
Jun 11
El Niño is born! Destined to be the biggest in 150 years ??
NOAA declares: El Niño Advisory
This morning conditions in the Eastern Pacific met the criteria for El Niño. This means Sea Surface Temps reached a certain level above normal, and the ocean and atmosphere “coupled” meaning they are now working in tandem to produce impacts. This event is widely advertised by models to be potentially the strongest on record. El Niño takes very hot water stored in the deep tropical west Pacific, pushing it east and up to the surface, lofting that heat into the atmosphere, which supercharges weather events and throws the climate off-kilter. This typical means more intense heatwaves & floods, but also it restrains the Atlantic hurricane season. So its impacts are both good and bad. One thing seems virtually certain: the heat released into the atmosphere will make for some unprecedented events through 2027, and on top of longterm warming, the hottest global temperatures in many tens of 1000s of years. #ElNino #florida #storm #heatwave #flood #drought
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