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13 Mar 2025
***UNOFFICIAL NON-SPC*** Day 2 Prediction on the likely Tornado Outbreak Saturday...
HIGH RISK!
30# Tornado, several strong-intense, long-tracked tornadoes likely
45# Wind, some gusts greater than 80mph
30# Hail, some hail stones greater than 2"
#wxtwitter #tornado #wx
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Twisted Knight🔫 retweeted
1/4 Thoughts on Wednesday's severe weather - An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely tomorrow with long-track, strong to intense tornadoes on the table. A few failure modes do exist, but a volatile environment is still forecasted. #wxtwitter
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1/4 Thoughts on Wednesday's severe weather - An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely tomorrow with long-track, strong to intense tornadoes on the table. A few failure modes do exist, but a volatile environment is still forecasted. #wxtwitter
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Two other areas across the U.S. to watch for increased tornado potential would be a pseudo cold core setup across the Upper-Midwest and a tropical setup across the gulf coast, specifically across southern Louisiana.
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Twisted Knight🔫 retweeted
Probably 20 thousand feet with the debris
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Strong tornado may be on the ground. Visible debris ball on reflectivity lined up with a CC drop and lower DR, despite the radar indicated warning. (This has been showing up for a few scans now). SEEK SHELTER NOW! Morgan, Hedricks, Putnum counties in western Indiana!
#wxtwitter
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50kt 500mb jet translation speed for tomorrow. Does exceeding OMEGA High Risk criteria, should Broyles be in the office to use it.
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FYI the criteria is 40kts. Also, just because it exceeds that doesn't mean we're getting a High Risk, and I don't think we should right now, at least until we get surface observations tomorrow morning and we see how morning convection evolves.
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This is a perfect setup for a 15% CIG3, maybe even consider a 30%.
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Twisted Knight🔫 retweeted
Jun 16
1/3 Thoughts on Wednesday's severe weather - A potent setup is in the forecast. I've outlined an ENH driven by 45% CIG1 Wind and 10% CIG2 Tor. I've opted to wait until I have an area of higher confidence to outline a 15% CIG2 (prob. NE IL/NW IN vicinity). #wxtwitter
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Jun 16
1/3 Thoughts on Wednesday's severe weather - A potent setup is in the forecast. I've outlined an ENH driven by 45% CIG1 Wind and 10% CIG2 Tor. I've opted to wait until I have an area of higher confidence to outline a 15% CIG2 (prob. NE IL/NW IN vicinity). #wxtwitter
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Jun 16
I was going to wait to add a CIG2 for the tornado risk, but considering the exceptionally potent kinematics, I don't think it's a bad decision to just cover a broad area with the CIG2 hatching. A sneaky pseudo cold core setup in IA/MN also to watch.
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Twisted Knight🔫 retweeted
Jun 15
GAETHJE NATION STAND TF UP BABY🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🙌🏽🙌🏽🙌🏽🙌🏽🙌🏽 #UFCFreedom250 #UFC250
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Jun 14
.@DaRealMiniToon There is a bug with the NPC's saying there is no storage even when it's not full, IDK if this is just for the logging.
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Jun 13
SummerSlam Predictions:
Gunther (c) vs Oba Femi (KOTR winner)
Roman Reigns (c) vs Seth Rollins
Cody Rhodes vs Sami Zayn
Seth Rollins vs Bron Breakker
Jey Uso vs LA Knight
#Smackdown
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Twisted Knight🔫 retweeted
Jun 12
I forecast HP storms yesterday in IL and was very wrong. The ILX 21z sounding might tell half the story, with dry air above 700mb (along with a small capping inversion, potentially due to subsidence from the earlier MCS). Low LCLs may also have forced narrow, inefficient updrafts
Jun 12
So - genuine question - why was every single open warm sector tornado yesterday completely rain free?
I certainly expected to see HP/rainwrapped messes. Instead everything was dry and photogenic. Not to mention cyclical and productive. ????
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Jun 12
One of my better outlooks relative to the SPC almost spot on
Jun 12
1/2 Thoughts on Saturday's severe weather - While still early models have been hinting at one or two MCS's across the central U.S., particularly one that may form from supercells along a surface boundary along the MO/IA border. Another one may form in central KS.
#wxtwitter
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