trading addict | growing capital in DeFi | prediction market visionary

Joined December 2021
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Rumors about this integration were around for a while. I was waiting for one feature. It boosts winrate 2-3x. @BitgetWallet put @Polymarket right into the app. Deposit, market, position, all in one window. No tabs, bridges, gas. Anyone can figure it out in a couple of minutes. That feature is Smart Money Tracker. You see which top wallets went into which markets before the market moved. Next to it, AI aggregates news and data on every market. For a regular user the barrier to entry is on the floor. For those who know what they’re doing it’s an edge that will noticeably lift returns. Any event can be traded now. NBA games every night, the World Cup around the corner, elections, the Fed. If you have a view, it has a price. 30 seconds, showing it from scratch
Say YES to predictions. Aliens. Politics. Sports. Trade market outcomes with our @Polymarket integration. ps. NO is also an option.
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An ex-OpenAI safety researcher told me something at a bar he definitely shouldn't have It was in Austin. Some afterparty for a conference nobody remembers. I mentioned I was running prediction market agents. He stopped mid-drink. "Which model?" "Claude" "Good. Don't use ours for this" I asked why. "GPT is optimized to be agreeable. Claude is optimized to be uncertain. Uncertainty is the entire edge in prediction markets" He said his old team at OpenAI spent 18 months building internal eval pipelines. Confidence calibration. Multi-source verification. Structured reasoning before any output. "Then Polymarket open-sourced the exact same architecture for free and nobody noticed" He took my phone. Typed one link. github.com/warproxxx/poly_da… "RAG pipeline. 9 live data sources. LLM backbone. Autonomous execution. This is what a $200M quant desk looks like as a repo" "Why are you telling me this?" "Because I'm running it. I left OpenAI four months ago. This makes more than my salary did" He said the agent scores every market on Polymarket every 20 minutes. Reuters. AP. Odds feeds. On-chain flow. Social sentiment. If the edge is above 12% it enters. Quarter Kelly. Exits in seconds if the thesis breaks. "Worst month was -$800. Best was February. Three resolutions in one week. $19,000" I asked what his total was. He showed me his wallet. Didn't say a word. $61,000. 5 months. One agent. "OpenAI has 3,000 employees building GPT. I have a laptop and a repo that's better at finding mispricings than anything we built internally" I set mine up that weekend. $750 in. First week: $340. Four agents running. 74% hit rate. He texted me a week later. "Don't post about this"
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An ex-Anthropic engineer added me to a Signal group at 2am No name, No description, 14 people He worked on Claude's reasoning layer, Left 8 months ago His first message: "If you're not running agents on prediction markets by June you're mass" Then a screenshot of his wallet $41,000 in 90 days, 340 trades, 74% hit rate I DM'd him "What's the setup?" "One agent, Claude backbone, RAG pulling from 9 sources, News wires, odds, sentiment, on-chain flow, Scores every Polymarket position every 20 minutes" "If the edge is above 12% it enters, Quarter Kelly, Hard stop if the thesis breaks" "Worst week?" "-$300, Best was $4,200" "Hedge funds pay 6 figures for this pipeline, They use 40 people, I use one repo and an API key" github.com/Polymarket/agents 477 stars, MIT license, Built by Polymarket themselves, Full agent framework, RAG, LLM tools, Live data sourcing "Clone it, Plug in Claude, Set risk params, Walk away" "The model doesn't sleep, Doesn't second-guess, Just runs the math" Then he typed one last thing "Maybe 200 people run this stack right now, In a year 10,000, The edge compresses, Get in early or watch" Set mine up that night, $750 in First week: $340 The group still has no name, But it has 23 people now Bookmark this
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I had dinner with someone from OpenAI last week Group dinner in Dubai, Friend of a friend brought him Quiet the whole first hour Then someone mentioned Polymarket His face changed "How much do you know about market making?" "Enough" "Then you know the house always wins" He showed me a bot, Not a prediction bot, A market making bot, It doesn't bet on outcomes, It sits on both sides of the book and collects the spread Every trade someone else makes, His bot earns a cut "How long?" "Seven months" "Starting capital?" "$3,000" He scrolled to his stats $37,000 "Market makers don't need to be right, They need to be present, The bot adjusts spreads in real time, Collects the gap between YES and NO" I asked what happens when a market goes volatile "That's when you make the most, Wider spreads, More volume, The bot eats" The whole thing runs off a Google Sheet and a Python script he forked months ago "Most people try to predict the future, I'm just taxing everyone who does" He showed me the repo github.com/warproxxx/poly-ma… 221 stars, MIT license, Full market making engine, WebSocket order book, Spread control, Risk limits "Clone it, Set your spreads, Connect your wallet, Let it sit" He finished his drink and said one more thing "There are 14 market makers on Polymarket right now, 11 of them are running a version of this, None of them are losing money" Went back to my hotel and didn't sleep Set it up on a $5 VPS at 3am Woke up to my first spread captured at 6 The edge isn't in predicting, It's in providing Bookmark this
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I sat next to a guy who built Claude at the airport. He had 6 terminals open. Not code. Trading dashboards. Amber tickers. Live feeds. I had a 3-hour layover. Couldn't help it. "What are you running?" He looked at me. Then at his screen. Then back. "You trade?" "Crypto." He laughed. "I used to." He said he spent 2 years on the Claude team. Left last summer. Said he watched it solve benchmarks that were supposed to take quant teams months. "If it can do that, it can price a prediction market better than anyone on Wall Street." He wasn't wrong. 8 agents running on Claude. Each one handles a different edge on Polymarket. Crypto spreads. Election mispricing. Weather markets. "Citadel has 400 quants doing this. I have Claude and a $5 VPS." Started with $1,500 three months ago. $20,800. "What's the catch?" "Quant funds charge 2 and 20 for the same math Claude does for $12 in API credits." He pulled up the repo. py-clob-client. Polymarket's own SDK. Orders. Positions. Market data. github.com/Polymarket/py-clo… "Connect this to Claude. Quarter Kelly sizing. Don't touch the bets. Go to sleep." My flight got called. I didn't want to board. Built my first agent on the plane Wi-Fi. It placed its first trade before we landed. The terminal doesn't care about your rΓ©sumΓ©. Bookmark this.
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My friend called me at 2 AM crying. "I lost everything on memecoins." $4,000. Gone in one night. Some influencer shilled a token. She aped in. Rug. I told her to come over. She sat on my couch. Mascara everywhere. Laptop open on some Telegram group still pumping the next "100x gem." I closed the tab. "Let me show you something." I opened the terminal. $9.40 captured $6.20 captured $11.70 captured "What is this?" Polymarket. Not memecoins. Not gambling. Prediction markets with real edges. 8 agents running different strategies. One copies whale wallets. One catches price delays on 15-minute crypto markets. One trades elections when the crowd overreacts. "How much did you put in?" $2,000. She looked at the P&L. $15,471. She didn't say anything. Just stared. "Can you set me up?" I built her setup on PolyTerm. Free. Open source. 81 commands. Whale tracking. Arbitrage scanner. Never touches your keys. github.com/NYTEMODEONLY/poly… $500. What she had left. Connected. Running. She texted me a week later. "I deleted Telegram."
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My girlfriend found $500 missing from our joint account. She called me at work. "What's the charge to Polygon." I hung up. Not because I didn't want to explain. Because I didn't know how. Three months ago I couldn't sleep. 4 AM. Scrolling Twitter. Some guy posted a Polymarket screenshot. $14K in a week. Comments called it fake. His wallet was public. I checked. It was real. polymarket.com/@0xde17f7144f… Opened Claude. Typed one line. "Take $500. Trade Polymarket. Three strategies. Don't ask me anything." Then I forgot about it. Literally didn't check for two weeks. Week three I opened my phone in the bathroom at work. $2,100. The bot had split itself into three agents. On its own. One trades BTC momentum. 15-minute contracts. 91% win rate. One buys both sides when total cost drops below a dollar. Locks the spread. 87%. One copies twelve whale wallets. They move, it moves. 88%. 1,284 trades in 90 days. I placed zero. Worst day: -$120. Made it back by noon. Best day: $2,840. I was in a meeting about Q3 projections. Sharpe: 3.41. I googled it. Hedge funds brag about 2. I called her back. "Check the balance." Silence. "There's... $10,700 in here." "That was the $500." More silence. "Why didn't you tell me?" Because I didn't believe it either. She hasn't mentioned the Polygon charge since. But she did ask me for the prompt.
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My OpenClaw learned to make money off CZ's habits. In 20 days it made $3,400 without any input from me. I asked it to explain. It sent back a complete strategy. Simple enough for anyone to replicate. On Polymarket and predictfun you can bet on how many times CZ posts per week. The agent found an anomaly in his behavior. That's the edge. Here's how CZ posts: a couple days of silence, then 10-15 posts in a single day. A conference, a livestream, a wave of hate - any trigger starts a wave. When the event happens, prices on the market still sit flat for a while, and the agent recognizes the event and opens trades at better prices. Not every trade hits. CZ can disappear for 4 days - a conference, a vacation, a mood. You can't predict the human factor. But with an 83% win rate and RR of at least 2:1, it fits the system. AI agents will take over prediction markets. People without agents will be exit liquidity
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> open laptop > bot made $340 overnight > bought BTC contracts before Polymarket repriced > close laptop > next morning: $280 > entry at 40Β’. resolved at $1 > next: $410 > next: $195 > feed the docs to Claude > he does the rest
A former Citadel quant fed his strategy to Claude. Now he makes $12,000 a day on Polymarket. I broke down his strategy. It's scary simple. > $641K total > $213K this month > each trade lasts 5 minutes > strategy is three steps The bot checks the 1-minute BTC chart. Sees movement before Polymarket does - opens a trade. Kelly determines the size. The stronger the signal - the bigger the position. His profile: polymarket.com/@vidarx?r=quo… Below - documents with all the formulas. Feed them to Claude - he'll build you the same bot.
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A former Citadel quant fed his strategy to Claude. Now he makes $12,000 a day on Polymarket. I broke down his strategy. It's scary simple. > $641K total > $213K this month > each trade lasts 5 minutes > strategy is three steps The bot checks the 1-minute BTC chart. Sees movement before Polymarket does - opens a trade. Kelly determines the size. The stronger the signal - the bigger the position. His profile: polymarket.com/@vidarx?r=quo… Below - documents with all the formulas. Feed them to Claude - he'll build you the same bot.
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Now my Claude on the basic plan works way better than the $200 MAX plan: it supports more features and has much higher limits. I just read an article and figured out how to save 99% of tokens
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My agent refused to follow my Polymarket strategy. Said: I found a better way. And disappeared for 3 hours. Came back with $200 - made it on Shanghai weather markets. I'd never even traded those. I asked him to explain. He dropped coordinates. "There's a thermometer here that predicts weather with 90% accuracy." The agent has been trading for 10 days straight. Every day - $200 to $300 in pure profit. The whole time I never opened Polymarket once. The bot traded on its own and sent me reports in Telegram. You open the Shanghai weather forecast. See 13Β°C. Bet on 13Β°C. You lose. Polymarket doesn't read the city thermometer. It reads METAR - the aviation weather report from Pudong Airport. Data goes through Wunderground directly. The airport sits on the eastern edge of the city. Temperature there runs 1-2Β°C colder than downtown. On the range boundary, those 2 degrees decide the outcome of your bet. Would you trust an agent with your deposit?
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bro literally showed how to turn your Claude into an AI agent making $5,000/month
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bro literally shared 17 ways to make $300/day with Claude without talking to a single person
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This gets you banned at every sportsbook in the world. One account on Polymarket made $11M in 6 months doing it. To repeat it you need Claude and 15 minutes. I spent 7 days breaking down every trade this account made under a microscope. The edge turned out to be so simple it made me uncomfortable. > It's straightforward. > Prices on Polymarket sports markets are soft. > They lag behind fair value. > The gap is 3-7%. That's the edge. > This account takes it with millions. > You can start with a hundred bucks. Claude can calculate fair value for sports events: stats, team rosters, player injuries. You feed it a market and get a probability. Compare it to the Polymarket price. If there's a gap - you open a trade. At a regular sportsbook this account wouldn't survive a month. Sharps get banned, limited, and flagged from their first bets. Polymarket plays by different rules. This account has been earning for 6 months and the result is $11M. Nobody touched him. Open Claude. Send it this post. Ask it to find the edge. And drop what it finds in the comments.
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One guy turned reading the news into $78K/day. His Claude reads the news, calculates probabilities and trades. The guy doesn't make a single decision. I reverse-engineered his strategy. 3 formulas and 20 lines of code. Someone mass-analyzed 14,000 Polymarket wallets using Claude API. And found the patterns of those who make money. They do the same thing. Over and over again. All of this - open-source repositories on GitHub. Free. One downloads the full Polymarket history. 86 million trades, every wallet, every position. Another - an ML insider detector. In January it caught a wallet that entered a market with $35K and pulled out $442K the day before the event resolved. Third - an analytics dashboard. Tracks whales, scans arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi, catches wash trading. Fourth - a market-making bot. Places buy and sell orders simultaneously. Earns on the spread between them. $0.02–0.05 per trade, thousands of trades per day. All of this can be packed into your own Claude agent that uses these tools to read the news, evaluate probabilities and decide which trades to open. Full breakdown - formulas, code, list of repositories, patterns of millionaire wallets in the article below.
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I got an email from a hedge fund's corporate domain with a prompt for Claude Code. 2 days later I'm $4,200 on Polymarket. Almost deleted it. But why would someone send a prompt from a corporate email? Opened the file. 400 lines. Googled a fragment - zero results. Not on GitHub and Medium. Not in a single course. I pasted the prompt into Claude Code and hit Enter. The program launched itself, connected to Polymarket, started placing orders on both sides simultaneously across 3 markets. Closed my laptop. Went out. Came back 3 hours later and opened my phone. 83 messages from the bot. > Filled. > Filled. > Filled. Every two minutes. The strategy: buy both sides for less than a dollar. BTC up - share price $0.52. BTC down - share price $0.41. Total $0.93. After resolve you collect $0.07 per contract. $0.07 per share. Enter a position with 400 shares and you're banking $32 from a single pair every hour. I think I found the Polymarket account of the person who sent me that prompt: polymarket.com/@0x8dxd?r=quo… Send this tweet to your AI agent and ask it to build this bot.
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>plug your phone in for the night >wake up to 1 message from your agent >"someone dropped $35K into a market that didn't exist yesterday" >you copy the trade >by evening you're up $20,000 >it's a RAG system >it scans all of Polymarket while you sleep >it costs you $12/month to run >all you did was read this post >sent it to your agent >it did the rest >you just claim the profit
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