Joined August 2008
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...how it's going: aimagazine.com/news/coupa-ac… What a ride the last 10 years were!! Gave it our best, hopefully made some positive impact on the world, learned a ton. Especially about people, and how amazing it is to work with the best (if you manage to build a truly great team).
12 Feb 2025
> be @RossumAi > take all the AI advances we are hyped about here > gloriously plug them in a ✨B2B SaaS✨ > run AI agents on many Mpages/week > automate a common business process (transactional paperwork) for 100s enterprises > fix a menial clerical job that people hated to do
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Counterpoint to all the "this destroys trust in AI economics" etc. commentary
Fable isn't the first. In 1999 the department of defense blocked exports of the PowerMac G4 for crossing the 1 gigaflop threshold. Steve Jobs turned it into an ad.
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Wife: "On the one hand, I know when you're in a hole stop digging. On the other hand, it's funny when the hole is really big."
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Together with UC Berkeley we are announcing the laser phase plate - a breakthrough in atomic resolution imaging. This is the brightest continuous wave laser in the world, 100 million times the intensity of the surface of the sun. Phase contrast plays an important role in microscopy, but it was thought close to impossible for electron microscopy, where it would require interfering with an electron beam. Holger Mueller and Robert Glaeser proposed exactly this using a standing wave laser. It has taken over 15 years to make this a reality. Biohub partnered with UC Berkeley and Mueller to support this work and to engineer and build the technology. Contrast has been the critical barrier to achieving atomic resolution imaging of the cell. In cryo-electron tomography, a cellular imaging technology that uses electron microscopy, the low contrast makes it impossible to resolve anything but the largest proteins within their cellular context. The laser phase plate removes that barrier. With advances in AI this breakthrough in contrast will start to open up a new frontier in structural biology, that will allow us to see the molecular machines of the cell, and how they assemble into far more complex and dynamic systems, and understand how they work.
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u should actually feel lucky china isn't winning the frontier AI race, else we all would've had to put up with routine authoritarian practices such as topic-based output censorship, government-enforced access restrictions, and intelligence centralization in the hands of a few.
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Replying to @TheZvi
We are entering the age of major, permanent gap between models that are available only internally (used for RSI and maybe some applied products w/o API), vs. published heavily hobbled models. Much harder to regulate internal models.
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This was the best way to put it:
- i'm angry about this because i personally and for others want access to fable, and simultaneously believe anthropic's safeguards were sufficient and the US government badly misunderstood the information they were presented - but in abstract this is in fact exactly what I want. it's heartening to see the USG treat artificial intelligence with the seriousness and immediacy it deserves. this kind of swift action is what might have a chance of saving us from unaligned RSI. - but i also very much don't trust *this* government to handle this well, to take sane unilateral action, to chart any kind of correct path. - and this escalates the global race enormously. this is as strong a signal as you can get to, not just China but the EU and even our closest allies, that the US will not be sharing this advantage. that if they want sovereignty they're going to have to fight for it - obviously, that was always the case, and it was always going to happen eventually. but i don't think now was the time to send that signal. it would have been better to delay as long as possible. very mixed feelings today
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Snitches identified :)
Replying to @AndrewCurran_
The jailbreak that triggered all of this was reported by Amazon.
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"california is basically a civilization-scale stress test for whether innovation can outrun dysfunction"
i don’t think we spend enough time thinking about what an insanely paradoxical place California is from a socio-economic viewpoint. 40 million people churning a $4 trillion GDP. compare that to India’s GDP of ~$4 trillion with a 1.25 billion population. cali has 36x the gdp/capita compared to india that’s just insanity or even with japan it’s a 3x multiplier and the thing is it looks like a recipe for collapse: housing costs, regulation and bureaucracy, massive inequality, earthquakes, huge pension liabilities, some of the highest taxes in America, politicall polarization, super expensive infra and yet it just…keeps compounding my thinking is that it’s because it accidentally cornered the world’s most valuable industries at the same time: silicon valley (software/ai), hollywood (media), central valley (agriculture), la/long beach (trade), biotech, venture capital, defense, universities, and access to pacific markets california is basically a civilization-scale stress test for whether innovation can outrun dysfunction so far, somehow, it has and it’s incredible to say the least
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The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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popping one of these, i bet
I wonder what Elon Musk feels right now as he becomes the first trillionaire
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FrontierMath fixing many errors thanks to GPT Opus reminds me of this picture i made in our BigTransfer paper. For the first time, our big model's "wrong" answer (top) was generally better than the ground truth (bottom) of ImageNet. Not cherry picked.
FrontierMath: Tiers 1–4 (v2) is live. We concluded an audit that addressed errors in 42% of problems. Rankings are similar but scores are higher across the board. The current leaders are GPT-5.5 (xhigh) with 85% on Tiers 1–3 and Google’s AI co-mathematician with 76% on Tier 4.
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BTW these arguments can go back and forth, but perhaps a useful proxy to discuss is RSI. Much easier to discern signal how fast we are moving on that trajectory. And perhaps easier to argue whether if we achieve RSI, it has implications on other domains?
Replying to @srchvrs
This can all be true, yet programmers may still end up in the position of horses in 1908 (much better comparison than with agriculture workers) under exponential capability growth.
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glad anthropic walked this back and will now tell users when capabilities are nerfed my biggest concern was hiding this from the user and the paranoia it would have created. i still think part of that will remain as people realize that even as a good actor you won't always have access to the best model, and this is the reason open models and open research are critical @drfeifei, @sriramk and many others say it much better than me, but i consider it very important for our civilization that good faith researchers get access to the best AI, and that at least part of this research happens in the open and not only inside a few closed labs (not talking only about ai research here) going forward, i REALLY hope that anthropic (and other labs) will be transparent when they nerf a model in certain fields, whether it's at inference time (~PEFT/steering, previous safeguard) or at training time (training against, mythos vs fable) i also hope we will see more work and transparency on evaluating models capabilities to do ai research, both autonomy and raw capabilities. right now this is very light even in anthropic and oai system cards. you can't treat this as a first-class risk and only report weak evals to the public. we also need strong third party actors here
We’re rolling out changes to make Fable 5’s safeguards for frontier LLM development visible. Starting this week, flagged requests will visibly fall back to Opus 4.8—the same as our safeguards for cyber and bio. You will see this every time it happens. On the API, any flagged requests will return a reason for their refusal (coming to server-side fallback in the next few days). We wanted to deploy Fable 5 to our users quickly and safely. Visible safeguards can be probed, so they have to be robust, which takes time to get right. Invisible safeguards can be targeted more narrowly, allowing us to ship quickly with very few false positives. We went with invisible safeguards for this reason—and that was the wrong tradeoff. You should have visibility into the safeguards we have in place, and why. We’re sorry for not getting the balance right. Making the safeguards visible makes them easier to work around, so keeping them robust to jailbreaks will unfortunately mean more false positives while we improve the classifiers. We're also tuning our bio and cyber classifiers to trigger less often on harmless requests. We know this is frustrating and we’ll do our best to keep this period as short as possible. If you think a request has been mistakenly flagged: run /feedback in Claude Code, click thumbs-down on the fallback in Claude.ai or Cowork, or file the safeguard appeal form for API requests. Your reports help us tune these classifiers and we appreciate your feedback. support.claude.com/en/articl…
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Honestly annoyed at all the dunk replies. They messed up and they fixed it. Encourage learning. Kudos from me. (Yes, for my personal interests I would prefer no refusals. I also expect they will narrow them down over time, and the case *for* them is somewhat legit.)
We’re rolling out changes to make Fable 5’s safeguards for frontier LLM development visible. Starting this week, flagged requests will visibly fall back to Opus 4.8—the same as our safeguards for cyber and bio. You will see this every time it happens. On the API, any flagged requests will return a reason for their refusal (coming to server-side fallback in the next few days). We wanted to deploy Fable 5 to our users quickly and safely. Visible safeguards can be probed, so they have to be robust, which takes time to get right. Invisible safeguards can be targeted more narrowly, allowing us to ship quickly with very few false positives. We went with invisible safeguards for this reason—and that was the wrong tradeoff. You should have visibility into the safeguards we have in place, and why. We’re sorry for not getting the balance right. Making the safeguards visible makes them easier to work around, so keeping them robust to jailbreaks will unfortunately mean more false positives while we improve the classifiers. We're also tuning our bio and cyber classifiers to trigger less often on harmless requests. We know this is frustrating and we’ll do our best to keep this period as short as possible. If you think a request has been mistakenly flagged: run /feedback in Claude Code, click thumbs-down on the fallback in Claude.ai or Cowork, or file the safeguard appeal form for API requests. Your reports help us tune these classifiers and we appreciate your feedback. support.claude.com/en/articl…
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NEW: malware developers added nuclear & biological weapons text to to their spyware. Goal? To trigger LLM safety refusals... so that their spyware wouldn't be analyzed by an AI security scanner. Cleanest practical example I can think of for why over-indexing on first order safety alignment is risky. When closed (and open) models ship with aggressive refusals, they will be sprinkled with second-order blindspots that attackers will discover...and exploit. We are only in the earliest days of attackers leveraging these features, and it wouldn't surprise me if users systems that need to handle complex cybersecurity issues demand that models be less safety-blunted. In the weeds: @SocketSecurity's post also shows why intention matters in how you design a malware analysis pipeline to avoid prompt manipulation. H/T to colleagues that shared this with me socket.dev/blog/mini-shai-hu…
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Replying to @scaling01
To be fair, we are still not yet at Opus 4.5 level with open models, which I think was an even bigger step change that Mythos is (even if not by much). That will be a huge milestone by itself, and clearly did not happen yet (or does anyone claim otherwise?).
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This sums up my feeling about Anthropic since Opus 4.5 so well
Someday I hope to know whether Anthropic always intended to "win" or if they just wanted to be close enough to do good safety stuff, but massively underestimated OpenAI's ability to self-sabotage, and now are unsure what to do (or a messy mix depending on the person etc.)
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Usage share of OpenAI grew vs Anthropic yesterday despite Mythos 5 / Fable 5 launch Multiple power users at SemiAnalysis tried Mythos / Fable Got refusals for nonsensical reasons Got pissed off at Anthropic Gave Codex a legitimate try Now they actually prefer it to 4.8 Opus
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machines of selectively loving grace
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