Oil is repricing the ceasefire faster than the market is repricing the macro. Iran ceasefire extended 60 days. Hormuz reopening in 30. Oil fell from $101 to $90 in a week. One risk premium out. But the macro tail is still there: 30Y above 5%, December hike odds near 50/50, cuts still not back in the tape. Breadth improved, but narrowly. Cyclicals still haven’t confirmed. Semis at highs, housing weak, same index, different economy. The bigger story is capital allocation. S&P 500 buybacks were $900B last year. Hyperscalers are spending $200B on AI infra in 2026. That is cash not going to repurchases. At 21x forward P/E, who is the marginal buyer? SpaceX raise, OpenAI filing prep, low vol, crowded longs. This week matters. $MRVL Wed. $CRM Wed. PCE Thu. new post: lobwedge.substack.com/p/the-…

Confidence is a Feeling. Edge is a Number. open.substack.com/pub/lobwed…

Fintwit furus in shambles once again

CTA SPX positioning // CTA SPX positioning 20d delta Seeing right chart floating around without context