Sports betting analyst & sceptic. Author of Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks: Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling. 18 . Please Gamble Responsibly.
Joined December 2012
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2 Dec 2021
Today is Monte Carlo Day!
My new book Monte Carlo or Bust: Simple Simulations for Aspiring Sports Bettors goes on general release. Amazon have a 'Look Inside' with the first chapter. Available at many other outlets.
amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASI…
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Jun 14
Latest week's tennis data added.
tennis-data.co.uk/
WTA Queens & 's-Hertogenbosch.
ATP Stuttgart & 's-Hertogenbosch.
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Jun 12
Faisal Islam explains how FIFA’s embracing of dynamic pricing, revenue-maximisation prioritised over full stadia, and the K-shaped economic model has turned them into a tout. Or more simply, how FIFA don’t give a toss about you unless you’re rich.
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv3…
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Jun 11
The paradox about gambling is that whilst humans have been attempting to predict (and control) the future ever since they formed the idea of it, almost universally throughout 'civilised' history, people who actually practice it have been considered somehow deviant in nature.
Jun 11
The stigma surrounding gambling is a mental. Not everyone who gambles is a degenerate gambler, and banks shouldn’t be questioning or making assumptions that someone has a gambling problem simply because they spend money on gambling.
Would the same concerns be raised if someone spent £200 a day eating out?
Would people automatically assume they have a fast-food addiction? Gambling is often judged differently from other forms of discretionary spending, even when the amounts involved are comparable.
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Jun 11
Anyway, point is that even liberal governments today are massively influenced by the moral ick gambling seems to cause so many, to the extent that gambling market liberalisation is inevitably followed by prohibitionist pushback hiding behind the veil of gambling harm prevention.
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Jun 11
If the scale of harm and measures to prevent them were treated proportionately, then compared to gambling (miniscule), fast food, alcohol and smart phones would now be banned for almost everybody.
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Jun 9
Fucking hell, not you as well? Brainwashed by social media, immune to actual data. This world is truly fucked if clever folk like you drop down the rabbit hole.
As humans, we are not wired to wake up and see news of beheadings.
But its no shock that all these knife violence attacks are happening in the UK. Anyone who watched Adolescence is painfully aware of the dangers of knife violence. Drastic measures must be taken to stop monsters like this lil guy.
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Jun 9
I feel so sad. In my early years I counted time in World Cup cycles. Anticipatory dopamine would go nuts in the run up to a tournament, then I’d watch every game. Today it just represents everything wrong with humanity. Like having your ❤️broken by the love of your life.
Jun 9
The World Cup has been absolutely butchered as a concept - something that used to be widely anticipated as the pinnacle of sport has been completely hijacked by the worst people on the planet. I honestly wouldn’t go to any game, including an England final, if you paid me.
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Jun 9
Well, maybe not everything, it’s still perhaps a time when different peoples and cultures can get together and mix in a spirit of inclusion, assuming those from the poorest countries can actually afford a ticket to watch and travel to a game, or even be let into the country.
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Jun 8
Tom uses a Monte Carlo method to evaluate the expected value of this World Cup bet. Want more of that? My book has lots of ideas to help you understand the business of winning and losing in sports betting.
Jun 8
What we think?
I hate to be "that guy", but this did get 85k views and 500 likes.
Their xGs are 1.23, 0.94, 1.07, 0.85, 0.63, 0.94, 0.65, 0.31
The "superb chance" = 0.46% (217/1)
We think this loses 48p per £ staked on it. Fill your 👢
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Jun 8
Here’s his World Cup Monte Carlo simulator.
Jun 8
I model all team and player xG in-house.
I have a free monte carlo simulator you can use yourself if you want to interrogate the xG of other players. If you disagree with my baseline assumptions of player-team % goal allocation then its customisable and you can change that.
bookiebashing.net/2026/05/22…
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Jun 8
France, Spain, Argentina, Germany, Portugal, Brazil, probably also Croatia, Netherlands, Belgium, possibly even Norway, Senegal, Morocco. Oh, and also Tuchel. Really hope I reminded of this tweet on 19th July, happy to eat humble pie if I'm wrong.
Whats stopping this England team from winning the World Cup? 🏴
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Jun 4
And whilst I'm on a streak of promoting paid packages, don't forget the Pinnacle Odds Drop service, odds drop alerts, opening odds alerts and closing odds tracking. Unlike my data, this won't be stopping for the World Cup.
football-data.co.uk/pinnacle…
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Jun 4
I never much like proactive promotion for my own financial benefit, but ocasionally I need to. With what seems to be the likely end to my role as a bookmaker affiliate in the coming weeks/months, revenue from POD and StatsAPI will incentivise me to keep going with F-D's own data.
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Jun 4
Finally, don't forget I have created an Excel file with the 2026 World Cup qualifying data as well as the last 3 World Cups, with odds and match stats. I will try to keep add the games data for this World Cup, but I may only do it every few days.
football-data.co.uk/WorldCup…
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