pretty much what I said on the blog Domestic agenda is taking a backseat to building a legacy. Men are remembered for winning wars, even ones they create, not for "low inflation".

sound advice

Signed in 1-2 hours --> "eventually" -->"talks stall" This is so predictable. Not sure what Trump's endgame is. He's not going to enjoy a polling bump, unlike George W. Bush who used 9/11 as pretext to war with initial polling success.

Asked an Anthropic friend how he was doing and he just handed me this

New post: "What Happened to the AI Job Crisis?" greyenlightenment.com/2026/0… Predictions of "AI job loss" keep being wrong. A reason AI has not destroyed jobs is due to the inherent difficulty of solving coordination problems. Multiple parties need to all be on the same page.

But's it's a bubble lol. I was right again. From 2021: greyenlightenment.com/2021/0… "By this decade, Bezos and Elon Musk will become trillionaires, growing their wealth at a rate that far exceeds inflation in spite of low GDP growth"

this is projection

Higher ed discourse on twitter is like "colleges promote wokeness, but also be sure it's rigorous"

Hi, “certain kind of liberal” here. Always good to see people engaging on the specifics. A quick summary of my view here: People learn at different rates. It is overwhelmingly clear that some portion of this variance is genetic; I leave the specifics of what is genetic and what is early childhood to domain experts. Every time I see a successful intervention to increase someone’s rate of learning, I’m thrilled. But people learn at different rates. Like many, I was drawn to this at first because I did well on tests and was bored in school. It’s not flattering because it’s scandalous, it’s flattering because it’s nice to find something you’re good at! But over time, I became obsessed with a disconnect: People learn at different rates. But virtually every time politicians talk about school, and every time you look at what’s happening in education policy, you see flat baselines. What percent are “proficient” or “at grade level”? Below a flat line? Crisis. Above it? Privileged; no concern. Everyone knows kids learn at different rates. And for generations, education policy has been obsessed with burying that, centered around a goal of flattening learning rates. This has distorted research, it has distorted policy, and it harms countless kids in countless schools every day. Because—forget about anything to do with genetics, and just test kids. Is someone ready for algebra? Teach algebra. Are they ready for novels? Give them novels. Do they need basic phonics practice? Give basic phonics practice. Are they struggling with addition? Teach addition. Some kids will progress faster. Some will progress slower. The question is not “are they going at the same speed?” but “are they being challenged appropriately? are they being productively taught to their level?” I would love to shut up about ability differences. But the trouble is, I’m not wrong on the facts. The people who work to flatten education into a one-size-fits-all mess because they refuse to say kids learn at different rates are, and until liberals get serious about it, they will continue to pursue intellectually bankrupt policies that hurt the kids they claim to help, at all levels.

this is cope. the valuation will hold much better than people are expecting Space-X huge contracts lined up . They are effectivity an AI/datacenter company now

There are all these stories going viral about how college kids are unprepared I find it hard to believe that the era that gave the world "Baby One More Time" and Girls Gone Wild commercials was more intellectually demanding. Confirmation bias, Selection effects at play here.

Are they really that smart? Outside of math or physics, probably 120-125 iq tops. Maybe it feels like a wasted effort because these people were never as smart as we were led to believe?

New post: Why Some Smart People Appear Ordinary Until Adulthood greyenlightenment.com/2026/0… Unless chess, music, or sports, talent at forecasting or finance is less obvious. Online, you find randos who know a lot, and it's not like there was anything special about them early at life

I always assumed 4HL is a white-collar type job where there is only 4 hours/day of actual work

fact: no one is paying those figures

i wish I could have invested in space-x or known someone who did.

liar. picked the lowest poll. the average is around 38%. Still low, but nowhere close to that .

This is a disturbing trend. Clearly it's the phones, says experts