The next generation of investment research.
Joined September 2020
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20 Nov 2025
What three year period from history does the AI-era (2023-2025) most closely resemble? 1994-1997.
Check out the latest from Caliban. 3FR's AI agent that can do research on the fly.
More at: 3fourteenresearch.com/caliba…
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Jun 11
New report out to 3FR clients.
-Why the current pullback qualifies as a buyable dip.
-Identifying the first sign of valuation exuberance (in semis).
-A hike cycle is a true risk to the bull...Not our base case.
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May 29
New report out to 3FR clients discussing:
-How the semi trade has influenced broad market structure,
-Loosening domestic GPU availability data BUT tightening foreign availability, and
-Why index price, internals, and valuations fall short of bubble characteristics.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
May 21
Nebius ($NBIS) raising on-demand pricing by 29%.
The 3Fourteen GPU Availability Index went from 80% at the beginning of the year to 9%.
GPU availability leads pricing.
B200 still at 0%...GH200 tightening further.
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May 15
New report out to 3FR clients examining:
-The ramp in topline estimates and what it implies for NGDP.
-Why, if analysts are right, bonds are mispriced.
-Re-examining the bubble evidence.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
May 4
I did my best here to reconcile the bullish forces underpinning the equity market and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets are often a test of your tolerance for cognitive dissonance. This is a classic case study.
Thanks for the conversation Jack.
May 4
OUT NOW - how @WarrenPies sees it:
- Stocks: "I'm scared out of my mind & also very bullish"
- Earnings "unprecedented" on AI compute scramble
- Oil headed higher... "crisis is not over yet"
Apple🔊shorturl.at/a0jXA
Spotify📽️shorturl.at/6J9Jt
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
May 2
Earnings boom really accelerating.
Forward estimates now up >25% YOY.
Passing through the first part of Q1 reporting, forward estimates are leveling up.
Updated chart below...Unprecedented.
Apr 24
A historic earnings boom is developing.
Estimates growing faster than they did in the mid-90s or late internet bubble years.
Only covid recovery period saw a greater inflection.
This boom is unique b/c it is not coming off an EPS drawdown (recovery).
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Apr 30
New report out to 3FR clients. Examining:
-The lopsided earnings surge,
-How GPU availability data led the semi rally, and
-Designing a portfolio to withstand the SOH crisis and benefit from an equity breakout.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
Apr 21
18 months later, the S&P 500 is:
-Above 7,000 ✅
-Still not overvalued ✅
More people agree w/ our valuation thesis now, but I still wouldn't classify it as consensus...
25 Oct 2024
Here's why @3F_Research @WarrenPies is forecasting a year-end chase following the election that could push stocks even higher:
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
Apr 20
Fiscal stimulus is starting to ramp up.
Tax refunds are tracking higher vs last year and nonwithheld taxes received are tracking lower.
Usually, receipts spike in the tax season following a bullish year in the market (causing a liquidity air pocket).
Hasn't happened this year
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Apr 16
New report out to 3FR clients, examining:
-The bull case (valuation reset/bond vol buy/tax stimulus/de-escalation/leadership changes, etc.)
-2000 comparison
-Oil as a still underappreciated risk, but mild improvement in physical term structure.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
Apr 8
As the Iran War has ebbed and flowed, GPU availability for B200s has collapsed to zero...H100s close behind.
Whatever happens with the war, the AI complex is likely to lead any true sustainable bull market.
Unsurprising to see SMH less than 1% from a new ATH
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Mar 30
Clients check your email for an important positioning update. We will release a corresponding retrospective later today.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
Mar 28
Joined @michaelsantoli to discuss market outlook and how the war has transformed the oil market.
m.youtube.com/watch?v=Beb5Bc…
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
Mar 20
Talking oil and the need for an imminent off-ramp w/ @michaelsantoli this afternoon on @CNBCOvertime
Thank you for the conversation Mike!
cnbc.com/video/2026/03/20/cr…
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Mar 19
New report out to 3FR clients. Examining:
-The closing taco window,
-How the war has eliminated the post-War glut, raised the equilibrium oil price, and tied the Fed's hands,
-Equity outlook.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
Mar 10
GPU availability continues to plummet.
New multi-year lows in availability for: B200, H100, and A100s.
Good luck getting a B200 (availability <5%).
Oil getting all the headlines (rightly), but, for markets, the dominant secular story is surging compute demand.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
Mar 6
Years before becoming a client of 3Fourteen's institutional research, Warren was my go-to energy guy. This report is a great reminder why. Outstanding.
New report out to 3FR clients breaking down oil/risks:
-Markets need a policy response in the next 10 days.
-Watch the curve for signs of a top (or signs that temporary risk premia is becoming embedded).
-If they adjust policy b/c of supply disruption, Fed is making a mistake.
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New report out to 3FR clients breaking down oil/risks:
-Markets need a policy response in the next 10 days.
-Watch the curve for signs of a top (or signs that temporary risk premia is becoming embedded).
-If they adjust policy b/c of supply disruption, Fed is making a mistake.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
Feb 21
AI's impact on the labor market is no longer theoretical.
In the most AI-exposed industries, job losses are accelerating (especially compared to their pre-AI trend growth).
AI resistant industries continue to add jobs. As the year progresses, expect this wedge to grow.
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Feb 19
New report out to 3FR clients. Examining:
-Evidence of distribution (especially on Nasdaq),
-AI showing up in the labor data definitively,
-Odds the Fed cuts more than consensus growing.
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