Optimist: The world's best book store. Pessimist: The world's worst library.

Real diversification means owning something you hate. If everything in your portfolio feels good, you’re probably not diversified. @jasoncbuck on why resilient portfolios often feel uncomfortable.

On this day in 1896, Charles Dow published his first index of purely industrial stocks in The Wall Street Journal. Twelve companies, one average: 40.94 points. The original list included American Cotton Oil, American Sugar, American Tobacco, General Electric, and eight others that no longer exist. GE lasted on the index until 2018, 122 years. The rest were gone within decades. Dow already had a railroad average running since 1884, but rails were the old economy by the 1890s. The new money was in manufacturing, refining, and consumer goods. He built the industrial average to track that shift. The math was simple: add the stock prices, divide by 12. No weighting, no float adjustment, nothing resembling modern index construction. The Dow was never a great measure of the market. It's price-weighted, which means a $300 stock moves the index more than a $30 stock regardless of company size. The S&P 500 replaced it as the professional benchmark decades ago. But Dow gave people a single number to track, and that number became the scoreboard. 130 years later, cable news still leads with it every night.

Bond yields over 5% and 2Ys at 4.1% are becoming attractive to long term investors The more you hear about the 'bond rout,' the more you should become interested For equities, a post OPEX continuation and tradable low is likely on tap today Have a super profitable 💰 day!

One of the simple reasons everything feels so good? S&P 500 revenue grew 11.1% YoY

📊 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘆 📊 The stock bond correlation was usually negative from 2000 to 2020, but more often positive from 1900 to 2000. via @CliffordAsness of @AQRCapital theideafarm.com/portfolio-ma…

Reminder…gold also waiting for signs that more easing is on deck…might move before rates

Talking oil and the need for an imminent off-ramp w/ @michaelsantoli this afternoon on @CNBCOvertime Thank you for the conversation Mike! cnbc.com/video/2026/03/20/cr…

New report out to 3FR clients breaking down oil/risks: -Markets need a policy response in the next 10 days. -Watch the curve for signs of a top (or signs that temporary risk premia is becoming embedded). -If they adjust policy b/c of supply disruption, Fed is making a mistake.