My biggest wins in Defi from the last 2 years happened because I was looking at new stuff that few people were looking at:
-OHM at backing price, which will never happen again because now people have too many eyes on it and understand it. I found it simply cause I was curious and did research on my own on something I wasn't familiar with and was genuinely curious about. One of my favorite plays ever (even if i could have made multiples more)
-JLP arb, the best arbitrage I've ever made, consecutive 3-7% arbitrages 1-2 times week across several weeks (on unlimited size!!), simply because I was farming that shit and very close to all the JUP/JLP eco and really understanding its mechanics when very few people was paying attention.
-TNSR prob payed 400% on the SOL i had deposited farming it for 3 months I was farming it (even though tnsr team rugged me 1/3 of my rewards, it would've been even bigger APR). Nobody wanted to farm tensor cause it wasn't easy (it was, but required some manual work).
-PTs in january-febryary this year, at that time people were still not paying too much attention. Now it feels almost impossible to find a PT for 2-3 months that will pay 100% .
-ETHFI looping when almost nobody was doing it back in may 2024. 250% super safu APR for over 2 months again because was something new at the time and no one was looking (my only regret was not having sized bigger)
-Extra Finance, with 300-400% DN APRs for 3 months (even though when I got to it it was certainly not early, but at least it was still not a bot fest and you could be a manual warrior and get rewarded).
-Scroll loops. Here it was a lot more looked into, but the alpha was in botting your way into getting some space. Different kind of friction
I could go on and on. All those share some commonalities. They were either relatively new and unknown, barely understood (like ohm cooler loans, extra finance, Pendle even recently) or had a big friction (manual labor, bot fest).
The reflection is:
-The biggest wins, the true alpha that pays oversized returns is most likely in the new; in the novel niche, the new shit that almost no one understands well. The chances of finding alpha are much greater in NEW niches. For example, I doubt we're gonna find outsized returns farming loops points anymore, it's simply too known and farmed (about loops, i think they're still ok, cause people still lend money prob too cheap, but extremely unlikely you get 200% APR looping PTs on Morpho). Or LPing stablecoins: it's too well known, too low risk, and even if you find a niche/new farm, odds are its APR will get normalized sooner than later. Stable LPing is simply too well known. Or another one: even if Lighter's points farm was ridiculously good 3-4 months ago, it is not anymore. If you farmed 200% APRs is because you got there early. Alpha always gets diluted.
-Also, not only the alpha is in novel stuff that no one cares enough to study, but on friction. Stuff that even if people really understands it, nobody wants to do it, cause you need to get your hands dirty or some sort of risk exposure no one wants to have (tensor/magic eden shit nft markets, hyperliquid spot shitcoins in '24).
-Curiosity pays. Recently, hyperevm bros were curious in a new shitty ecosystem when almost nobody was looking at it. They got early and got hugely rewarded so far (and prob will continue to do so in future airdrops). Same as with the hypercore spot trenches back in summer 24, they did the shitty thing nobody else wanted to do and got rewarded inmensely.
-To finish, it's also ok to have periods when you outperform massively, and are "on the trenches" but it's also good and healthy to have periods of lower activity when you simply enjoy life more and make peace with the fact you're gonna get average returns.
But imo if you want to find true alpha you gotta be in places where most people is not watching or is too lazy or uncomfortable to do the required work/effort.
Enjoy the summer :)