A well-informed source told me that Trump’s Truth Social post about lifting the blockade was, in fact, the first condition before moving to the next steps of the understanding. According to the source, the Iranian side insisted on a formal public announcement first. Trump appears to have framed it as a secondary issue, while Tehran sees it as a key confidence-building measure before entering the more sensitive files. So far, there has been no direct discussion of the nuclear file itself. The process is expected to move gradually through an MOU, where every step will be matched by a reciprocal step. The same sources say a ceasefire announcement between Hezbollah and Israel is also expected as part of the broader framework currently taking shape.

Following the Iranian example Missiles are set to proliferate in the Gulf Never, not even the most optimistic Gulf analyst, would have said that any country in the region would be capable of facing two nuclear powers and remaining standing. The Iranian military model, almost entirely based on asymmetric warfare, has sparked a broad debate in the Gulf regarding massive investment in missiles and drones to generate deterrence capabilities. Could the conventional warfare model, which has already cost the region’s countries hundreds of billions of dollars, have been the right choice? The Iranian model is certainly flawed in terms of air defenses, but what system would be effective against 500 modern aircraft and more than 1,000 cruise missiles launched from ships ? Hardly any system would maintain efficiency in such a scenario, especially within the Iranian geography. Having secure facilities that sustain a robust response capability is essential, no matter how much has been invested in air defenses. Rains of missiles and drones have become a real deterrent force and will serve as an example for the entire region, starting with the Saudis, who have significantly accelerated their missile program. The Vision 2030 program is moving at a fast pace, involving Chinese technology transfer, the construction of underground bases, and accelerated local production. In the last few months alone, approximately $11 billion in contracts were signed with non-American partners in the missile sector. Saudi Arabia purchases Chinese missiles and also produces its own version, already utilizing a model of underground fortresses very similar to what the Iranians do. In the case of the Emirates, they are already producing precision-guided missiles based on South African technology and attack drones based on Chinese technology. The EDGE Group has acquired several companies around the world and is absorbing technology, working to soon introduce cruise missiles with the help of the French company Safran. In May 2026, India and the United Arab Emirates elevated their partnership to include the joint industrial production of precision missiles and drones, with a projected investment of $5 billion. And the largest deal quietly moving forward would be the sale of the Indian BrahMos-NG missile to the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Full article: open.substack.com/pub/global…

IRAN–U.S. DEAL REPORTEDLY BLOCKED AT TOP LEVELS A source cited by i24NEWS claims that while an agreement was reached between Iranian negotiator Araghchi and the U.S. team led by Witkoff, it has not been approved by Iran’s senior leadership. According to the report, Mojtaba Khamenei did not give approval, which may also be a factor in why President Trump has not given final consent.

Given how sharply oil futures have reacted to even the possibility of an Iran deal, I increasingly doubt the predictions of structurally high oil prices for the rest of the year. Markets are beginning to realise that once geopolitical risk starts easing and Hormuz flows gradually normalise, the world could quickly move back toward an oversupplied market. My sense is that if a deal materialises and escalation is avoided, we may well see oil settling back into the high $70 to low $80 range later this year.

May 27 (Reuters) - Iran's state TV said Tehran had obtained a draft of an initial unofficial framework for a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. Under the framework, Iran would restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, while the U.S would withdraw military forces from Iran's vicinity and lift a naval blockade

بدأت الإمارات خطوات حذرة ومدروسة لخفض التصعيد مع إيران

BREAKING: IRGC Navy official Mohammad Akbarzadeh says renewed war with the US is unlikely but warns Iran’s forces are lying in wait and will turn the coast into a “graveyard for aggressors”, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News reports. 🔴 More on Aljazeera.com