Independent investor and positional trader, looking for ways to thrive in this ridiculous economy.
Joined July 2023
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106 Photos and videos
Jun 13
There's two approaches to investing.
1) Buy undervalued and sell above value. The Warren Buffett strategy.
2) Front-run dumb money to ride the full bubble, and sell far above value. The Charles Ponzi strategy.
The world's first trillionaire used the Charles Ponzi strategy.
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Jun 2
Bitcoin breakdown.
Shows retail rolling over, as almost all Bitcoin demand comes from retail ("Instituitional demand" for Bitcoin is fake, as it's just ETFs and ETF equivalents like MSTR bought by retail).
Consumer bankruptcy will pop the entire Everything Bubble.
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May 27
"Either government bonds will default or we'll have QE hyperinflation"?
Another false belief of the herd.
There's a third option. Entitlements will default (>50% of spending). Governments will be downsized by force to meet the legal obligation to pay their debt.
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May 23
SpaceX IPO expected at ~1.75T
2025 earnings : -4.9B
2025 revenue : 18.7B
Negative P/E.
Price/Sales of 94.
But please, tell me 2026 is nothing like the dot-com bubble because companies actually make money 🤡
#EverythingBubble
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Adrien retweeted
May 21
A price war brewing? Walmart reported disappointing earnings due to absorbing "virtually the entirety" of higher fuel costs. Meanwhile, Kroger is planning bigger price cuts to compete with Walmart. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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May 19
"During the first 10 days of May, the fiscal income from fuel decreased by 300 million euro, caused by a 30% decrease in consumer buying."
- French prime minister Lecornu
Demand destruction isn't a macro prediction anymore. It's an observable fact.
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May 12
Don't chase bubbles.
Don't short bubbles.
Just stay away, trade something else.
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Apr 30
Anyone basing their macro outlook on recent headlines understands nothing about macro.
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Apr 9
Now that trade volatility effects have nearly disappeared, GDP is back to being an accurate measure of growth.
Latest GDP : 0.5%
GDP saved by consumer spending. Consumer debt bubble still ongoing.
Recession inevitable but hasn't started yet.
x.com/Bluekurtic/status/2042…
U.S. GDP slowed sharply in Q4 2025.
Real GDP rose just 0.5% in the final estimate, down from 4.4% in Q3 and revised lower due to weaker investment.
Consumer spending and investment supported growth, but declines in government spending and exports weighed on the economy.
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Mar 24
An oil shock will have the exact same effect as the tariff shock did. Inflation spike in the first few months, then demand destruction takes over which eventually brings inflation to a lower level than before within a year.
x.com/i/grok/share/7b750b9e2…
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Mar 20
1970s : Oil shock, resilient consumer. The consumer takes on massive debt to pay higher prices. Stagflation.
2008 : Oil shock, bankrupt consumer. Deflationary recession.
2026 : Oil/tariff shock, bankrupt consumer, biggest market bubble in history. Deflationary recession.
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Mar 20
The herd in 2025 : Tariff inflation! No rate cuts!
Reality : inflation lower than 2024, 3 rate cuts.
The herd in 2026 : Oil inflation! No rate cuts!
After being proven wrong, now they double down. They never learn.
Supply shocks aren't inflationary if demand can't follow.
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Feb 16
Japanese inflation just crashed from the 3's to 2.1%, completely contradicting the gold bug belief that high government debt mass QE = hyperinflation.
Meanwhile gold bugs : "Japanese stagflation" 🤡🤡🤡
Economic illiteracy is out of control.
x.com/great_martis/status/20…
Feb 16
Stagflation in full swing.
As predicted.
Thanks for listening 👂
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Feb 15
The January CPI report showed new cars 0.4% YoY, used cars -2% YoY.
Everybody is dead broke, but people are still bidding new cars with borrowed money, and nobody wants used cars to be debt free.
The actual cause of sticky inflation, a US only phenomenon. Consumer debt bubble.
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Feb 13
Now that deflation is becoming a fact, comes the next wave of nonsense : AI caused it, so it's bullish.
So why is Euro inflation in freefall then? No AI in Europe...
Supply-side economics varies by country. But demand-side is collapsing in all of them!
x.com/APompliano/status/2022…
Feb 13
Cathie Wood says deflation is coming.
Her evidence may surprise you.
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Feb 4
Europe is entering outright deflation.
January numbers : CPI 1.7% YoY, -0.4% MoM.
But the real story is in the aggregate CPI.
From April 2025 to January 2026, there is ZERO inflation.
Because of base effects, April 2026 could see a 0% YoY inflation rate, or even negative!
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Adrien retweeted
Jan 10
Capping credit card rates at 10% will nuke consumer credit overnight.
Bank Policy Institute says 10% rate cap will force the banks to limit credit only to the most prime customers, so 67% of US families will lose access to credit cards.
Meaning, if the rate cap goes through, it will kill the last remaining bits of affordability and push consumers to subprime lenders that charge way more than 20%.
One of the worst policy recommendations ever.
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Adrien retweeted
14 Nov 2025
If the Fed is any later, the size of the policy error will be monumental.
Ask any manufacturer-domestic or foreign-the disinflationary forces tied to declining demand are inescapable. The idea that they can conjure pricing power via sheer will is laughable and worse, insulting.
14 Nov 2025
Danielle- Watching the increasing layoffs, personally having friends losing white collar jobs, and knowing many students that can’t find a job, how can the Fed not cut at the next FOMC meeting? Or are they going to be late as usual?
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9 Nov 2025
It's so funny to see Fintwit being against 50 year mortgages.
We're talking about the same people who believe the dollar will become worthless.
If they actually believed in 'fiat debasement', they would rush to get a 50y mortgage, paying back less than they borrowed.
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Adrien retweeted
6 Nov 2025
Low hiring, low firing stalemate no more.
Take out the retail seasonal hiring, and ADP payroll is negative. (And neither ADP nor the Challenger data below capture ~300K reduction in govt payroll)
6 Nov 2025
US companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades as artificial intelligence reshapes industries and cost-cutting accelerates, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.
Companies last month announced 153,074 job cuts, nearly triple the number during the same month last year and driven by the technology and warehousing sectors. It’s the most for any October since 2003, when the advent of cellphones was similarly disruptive, said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer.
The numbers are weak no matter how they’re spliced. Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the most since the pandemic. In the same period, US-based employers have announced the fewest hiring plans since 2011. Seasonal hiring plans through October are the lowest since Challenger started tracking them in 2012. (BBG)
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