Co-host of @bsurveillance
Joined April 2013
- Tweets 29,952
- Following 1,509
- Followers 437,699
- Likes 10,267
4,845 Photos and videos
Jun 12
The huge cash-raising exercises this year, including the historic SpaceX IPO, come against a backdrop of a record amount of cash in money markets - now nearly $8 trillion. This cash pile is helping to support a lot of the recent technological buildout.
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Jun 11
US 10-year Treasuries are offering about the greatest amount of yield versus the S&P 500's earnings yield going back to 2003. Either earnings have to keep outperforming, or bonds will start looking like an increasingly attractive alternative.
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Jun 11
US producer prices are increasing at the fastest pace since 2022.
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Jun 11
This chart paints both the hope and fear of tech capex. Oracle's spending has risen exponentially, far beyond its (& investor) expectations. As every tech company tries to force their ballooning capex plans into the market's pipes, we're starting to see indigestion.
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Jun 10
Oil strategists keep raising alarms over shrinking oil reserves. Carlyle's Jeff Currie: "It is robbing Peter to pay Paul -liquidating the buffer built over decades to suppress the very price signal that would trigger the investment response the mkt needs" carlyle.com/carlyle-compass/…
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Lisa Abramowicz retweeted
Spending on data centers and other AI infrastructure by Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta is expected to hit $670 billion this year.
At 2.1% of GDP, that would represent a higher share of the economy than the investment in the US railroad expansion during the 1850s.
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Jun 10
Tech companies are raising unprecedented amounts of cash in debt markets, but so are governments. Sovereign debt sales are poised for a record first half to a year, with government issuers selling $504 billion of debt so far in 2026. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The message from CEOs has been pretty consistent: demand is robust as companies spend more & have cash to do so. The Vale CEO told me yesterday their profits have actually expanded despite high oil prices since they’re able to pass along costs & then some youtu.be/rxTuPeM55hE?si=TEoy…
Jun 9
Btw an incredible nugget yesterday from @lisaabramowicz1.
Southwest CEO effectively stating outright he thinks core inflation is strong and wage price spiral dynamics are in place. He just might not have realized it.
I don’t think he’s right btw long term. But surprised he said it so blatantly.
Cc: @FerroTV @BloombergTV
$SPY $QQQ $SMH $SOXX
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United’s Scott Kirby wasn’t surprised by the strong jobs report on Friday, based on what he’s seeing for summer travel plans (and World Cup travel is just a tiny part of it.) He has been surprised by the lack of consumer pushback to higher prices. youtu.be/NOMRMYEvNn4?si=nUcm…
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This speaks to the oil price shock being more inflationary right now than a hit to growth. Consumers don’t like higher prices, but they’re demonstrating that they’re willing to pay them.
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This is true even for an airline like JetBlue, which historically catered to cost-conscious consumers. bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
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If the US jobless rate falls to 4.2% or below, it'll be in line or below the expected 4.2% CPI next week. That would be just 7th time since 1960 with inflation running close to or above the jobless rate: BofA's Michael Hartnett. Previous times this happened: '66, '73, '90, '00, '08, '21.
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It's getting tougher to glean a clear picture of the US labor market. Here's a new survey showing that the share of US small businesses planning new hires or trying to fill jobs fell to a six-year low in May: National Federation of Independent Business. (1/2)
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Meanwhile, earlier this week, the number of US job openings surged to the highest level in almost two years in the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report.
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What would make HSBC's Max Kettner bearish? "Any signs of stretched sentiment and positioning, slowing AI spending, and increase in chip supply are our biggest worries." What wouldn't concern him? "Loftier earnings expectations, geopolitics, and higher UST yields."
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The tech sector said last month it planned to eliminate 38,242 positions, the most since August 2024: report. “The labor market is being reshaped by technology in real time...AI is now the leading reason companies give for cutting jobs.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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“This is historically a tough time to be in credit,” since stocks often do better w/higher inflation: GoldenTree's Tananbaum. Still, he said, “we certainly are seeing better value in private credit today than we have seen in the last 24-36 months.” youtu.be/kSdSWfZf-lo?si=Vki7…
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The US stock market's nine-week winning streak is the longest since 2023. A 10th week of gains would be the longest since 1985, via @DRBCurtis @BloombergTV
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May 29
Chevron's Mike Wirth said we're weeks away from oil shortages. He sees US gasoline prices potentially rising considerably in the next two months. Listening to market strategists and then talking to commodity producers is an exercise in cognitive dissonance. @ferrotv @annmarie
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May 29
US distillate fuel inventories have dropped to the lowest level since 2003.
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May 29
Here's part of the interview with Chevron's Mike Wirth:
youtube.com/watch?v=6iJSfeqr…
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