I don't know if this "deal" with Iran will hold for long. In fact, I'm not sure it will hold through the week, or even the day. Maybe.
No one knows what's in the deal, but we're starting to get some contours, I think. In my opinion, it's a very bad deal built on a very fundamental misconception.
I say this understanding the carrot/stick approach, the idea that there are things Iran truly wants and should want even in the best possible world and situation and that they're offered on what are allegedly strict, clear-eyed requirements of "good behavior."
The problem with the deal is that the fundamental reality of the Regime has not changed and will not change. We are offering a lot of carrot-based nourishment to a Regime that needs to be nursed back to health and that permanently hates us for "religious" reasons (iykyk).
If the Regime is smart (it's not, so this is likely moot), it will play ball by the deal for long enough to get rebuilt and simply return to the Islamic standby of the long-game strategy. Maybe it takes them 10 years to rebuild and get all $300B dollars, plus maybe a far stronger economy so lots more (oil) money in the meantime.
Then it strikes when it is healthy and strong again.
Maybe we can keep them from making or getting a nuclear weapon; maybe one of our other enemies finds a way to give them one; maybe they don't need it by then.
The fundamental reality of the Regime, including the guy who signed the MOU, is "Death to America." That has not changed. That posture will not change. The strategy may shift in its time horizon or methods, just as it already has, but when it is nursed back to strength again, it will strike again.
The fundamental reality of the "religion" that runs the "Death to America" show over there is that all Ignorant (Jahili) societies, especially America, are the obstacle that prevents an Islamic world, which is required for the blessings of God to come. There's no reconciliation. There's no welcoming the the world order. There's no amount of time that changes this. They could be good, productive, secure members of the world community for 1000 years, and "Death to Jahili (America)" never ends. That is the "religion."
Everything else is methods, including playing nice to regain your strength on your enemy's dime. Even if it takes decades. Even if it takes centuries.
The only real hope in this "deal" is that it causes the harder-liners in Iran to see the ones who made the "deal" as traitors strongly enough to act upon it rashly and soon, thus internally weakening things until actually sane people (without the "religion") can take over. That's actually possible because they are not exactly smart in the relevant way, but if they understand the long game, it will not happen. Those power struggles can happen quietly and slowly, internally, while maintaining strength against their own people.
Again, I don't think they have the capacity for this restraint, and the thing is mostly a ruse or a game to try to get the "nuclear dust" out in the near term, drop gas prices for electoral whatever and global economic something something, and maybe create some regional accountability against the bad neighbor.
I understand clearly the idea that engaged realist foreign/geopolitical policy, like Trump utilizes, recognizes that a global hegemon cannot really contain regional powers, thus a robust and aligned regional security program is necessary in each "Great Space (Grossraum)" of the world. Therefore I understand the strategy of recruiting the Gulf states to participate.
I also understand the "religion." I understand "Death to America." I understand Jihad. I understand that the commitment to that is absolute and ultimate. Everything else can and will be subordinated to it.
If I was the Iranian Regime, I would play nice long enough to get my hundreds of billions and then get right back on my bullshit again as soon as I'm strong. Hopefully, they lack the restraint.