Joined August 2018
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In our latest full chat, @DFA_Analyst and I explore Australia's fuel & economic situation as the crisis in the Middle East continues.
As well as exploring some of the broader economic & humanitarian impacts of so much of the energy supply going missing.
youtu.be/GEC05Zlz5B4
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'The Block contestants won't make a cent after unsold Daylesford homes cop $300,000 price cuts'
domain.com.au/news/the-blockβ¦
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'As voter disillusionment grows, why aren't voters flocking to the Greens in Australia?'
sbs.com.au/news/article/as-vβ¦
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Patrick Beach man of the match in my book.
Some absolutely brilliant saves that really helped to stifle Turkey's momentum.
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Goal number 2 for Australia π
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3 generations of Aussies around the TV watching Australia vs Turkey at my inlaws house...
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This charts net overseas migration from Q2 2022 (the quarter the Albanese government was elected) to the most recent data which covers up to the September quarter of 2025.
Migration is clearly not lower than when the government was elected.
Data: abs.gov.au/statistics/peopleβ¦
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This is what the Albanese government's cumulative (errors across various years added together) budget migration forecasting errors look like.
Based on Budget Paper 1. for Budget 2022-23 (October) and Budget 2023-24.
"Immigration Minister Tony Burke has said budget papers show migration is "continuing to get lower""
The absolute absurdity of using budget migration forecasts as a defence when they have got them so badly wrong in the past.
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"Immigration Minister Tony Burke has said budget papers show migration is "continuing to get lower""
The absolute absurdity of using budget migration forecasts as a defence when they have got them so badly wrong in the past.
Immigration Minister Tony Burke has said budget papers show migration is βcontinuing to get lowerβ, despite the official figures showing Labor has failed to meet its migration targets in any year since 2022.
skynews.com.au/australia-newβ¦
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This is what the forecast for migration looked like in Labor's first budget in October 2022.
They were off by over half a million people over the three financial year's forecast.
A very poor record.
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It is heartbreaking.
One I saw recently was a pregnant young woman on a local community group trying to find a place in a sharehouse for a maximum budget of $250 a week.
Was discussing with a friend how many social media posts there are now from people begging for somewhere to live or begging someone to take their pets as they are about to become homeless. It's heartbreaking
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It is one of the greatest disappointments of my life that a subset of Australians have gone from caring about renters, homeless & people stuck in bad homes
To leaning on largely baseless narratives trying to find someone else to blame for these people's fortunes worsening.
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Its crazy to me that:
- Australia has a major rental crisis
- Government agencies admit this
- They project the housing deficit will continue into the 2030s
- And that household formation rates are being crushed
Yet in some quarters this is ignored for being inconvenient.
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I find this culture around some folks trying to push others away from wanting free standing houses to be quite fascinating.
Because it doesnβt work, people still want what they want.
I see some folks and they are talking about going as far afield as rural Japan to get it.
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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator π¦πΊ retweeted
@AvidCommentator @rationalaussie @DFA_Analyst That slide by you Tarric is show stopping. Two things- This is a black hole sucking up money that could drive productivity...........but there is a second elephant in the room- This inflates the money supply and because it does not increase productivity, inflation and debasement of the currency is gauranteed. Link to those intereated in the discussion- youtu.be/fP790DERvXg?si=CaJyβ¦
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It may be astounding, but god damn there are some people out there who believe Labor has cut immigration by 45% since they were elected.
The tribalism in the face of clear evidence that it is incorrect is basically religious level fervour.
Rolling 12 month net overseas migration when Labor was elected in Q2 2022 was 207.9k.
Today it's 311.0k.
So it has risen 49.6% from the quarter when Labor was elected.
Data: abs.gov.au/statistics/peopleβ¦
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How it feels crossposting my Twitter content to Threads then not bothering to check the notifications...π
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Rolling 12 month net overseas migration when Labor was elected in Q2 2022 was 207.9k.
Today it's 311.0k.
So it has risen 49.6% from the quarter when Labor was elected.
Data: abs.gov.au/statistics/peopleβ¦
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In my latest chat with @DFA_Analyst we discuss how almost every group of Australians polled wants a different path, and believes almost anything is better than this.
Along with an analysis on mortgages as a driver of the economy and all the recent news.
youtu.be/r_jw7aJZUQY
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Auction results - Sold To Listed
- Sydney 30.1% (27.5% last non-holiday weekend)
- Melbourne 38.9% (38.3%)
A bump for Sydney & Melbourne from the results seen a fortnight ago, but both cities remain near all time record lows for my data set (ex-public holidays, Xmas since 2018).
History suggests we will see a combination of gradually altered vendor expectations pulling prices lower and lower auction volumes eventually boosting headline clearance rates.
If that does not come to pass and stock continues to build on the market, that is when significantly larger and swifter downside scenarios may come into play.
No insight's from SQM this week due to last weekend being a public holiday impacted result, so that will be back with next week's results.
Methodology noted in graphic below. #AvidAuctions
Auction results - Sold To Listed
- Sydney 31.0% (27.5% last weekend)
- Melbourne 31.9% (38.3%)
Some entirely normal volatility this week stemming from the fact that it is a public holiday weekend impacted result.
A bounce for Sydney above its recent lows, but a huge drop for Melbourne.
Last week's SQM figures saw results continue to trend down after a one week bump in Sydney, Melbourne with a slight bump.
We will have to wait another week for a more meaningful set of preliminary results.
Methodology noted in graphic below. #AvidAuctions
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