Finance Sector Analyst and Principal Digital Finance Analytics

Joined December 2013
11,808 Photos and videos
Martin North retweeted
I’m finding most people who agree with the tax changes are carved out via Super and home ownership. And none have indicated how the tax changes will increase productivity.
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Martin North retweeted
This @AuSenate inquiry is a whitewash. We need another inquiry that is independent! Stop the new CGT!
Dear Journalists Here is a list of 21 individuals who have provided a public submission to the Senate Inquiry on CGT and yet the government have not published those submissions. To put this in perspective they only published six individuals. SIX. This is a gross abuse of their fiduciary duty to have an open an accountable democracy. The true number would be much larger and we have a lower limit of 61 submissions that are missing based on the government's own numbering up to 150 on their website despite only 89 submissions being made public. Despite this cherry picking, the only people that support a change to the CGT on equity and business are hand-picked economists, and the Australian Council of Social Services. Current list of those who have submitted and not published: @DerekFranc90653 @chrisbrycki @TheRealDavey2 @keithmarlowau @David_McMahon75 @acxjones @Hughmaxdavis @James16878077 @SeanoftheWeb3 @onslowshipping @MarshBrentnall @jsmith_dev @linzcom @leighjasper @ProphetHaza @whmacdonald74 @BankReformNow @F66Geoff @_swordfish6975 @xrpfanboi88 And myself Thank you to all that replied. @mcranston1 @PhillipCoorey @MarkDiStef @GeoffWilsonWAM @AngusTaylorMP @PaulineHansonOz @ajamesbragg @AlboMP @JEChalmers x.com/toy59496/status/206576… x.com/toy59496/status/206561…
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DFA Audio: Property Pressure Building… digitalfinanceanalytics.com/…

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This is what the forecast for migration looked like in Labor's first budget in October 2022. They were off by over half a million people over the three financial year's forecast. A very poor record.
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It may be astounding, but god damn there are some people out there who believe Labor has cut immigration by 45% since they were elected. The tribalism in the face of clear evidence that it is incorrect is basically religious level fervour.
Rolling 12 month net overseas migration when Labor was elected in Q2 2022 was 207.9k. Today it's 311.0k. So it has risen 49.6% from the quarter when Labor was elected. Data: abs.gov.au/statistics/people…
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There is a fairly robust relationship between net long term and permanent arrivals and rental growth on a lagged quarterly basis in recent times.
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Martin North retweeted
Highest withdrawal rate I think I’ve seen in Canberra Syd and Melbourne. Time to call it what it is at the moment-a crash. As we’ve seen though Aus property can turn on a dime. Eventually I reckon they go cgt change watered down with a rate cut.
Auction results - Sold To Listed - Sydney 30.1% (27.5% last non-holiday weekend) - Melbourne 38.9% (38.3%) A bump for Sydney & Melbourne from the results seen a fortnight ago, but both cities remain near all time record lows for my data set (ex-public holidays, Xmas since 2018). History suggests we will see a combination of gradually altered vendor expectations pulling prices lower and lower auction volumes eventually boosting headline clearance rates. If that does not come to pass and stock continues to build on the market, that is when significantly larger and swifter downside scenarios may come into play. No insight's from SQM this week due to last weekend being a public holiday impacted result, so that will be back with next week's results. Methodology noted in graphic below. #AvidAuctions
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DFA Audio: Markets Moonshot Thanks To SpaceX, AI Bets And The Iran “Deal” digitalfinanceanalytics.com/…

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Some folks are about to discover that property markets move in both directions, particularly historically high volatility markets.
They promised me property in Australia only ever goes up 😂
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Martin North retweeted
@AvidCommentator @rationalaussie @DFA_Analyst That slide by you Tarric is show stopping. Two things- This is a black hole sucking up money that could drive productivity...........but there is a second elephant in the room- This inflates the money supply and because it does not increase productivity, inflation and debasement of the currency is gauranteed. Link to those intereated in the discussion- youtu.be/fP790DERvXg?si=CaJy…
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Rolling 12 month net overseas migration when Labor was elected in Q2 2022 was 207.9k. Today it's 311.0k. So it has risen 49.6% from the quarter when Labor was elected. Data: abs.gov.au/statistics/people…
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Martin North retweeted
It's worth watching former Senator Gerard Rennick's @RennickGBR tax explanation in this debate. As he says, the car driven by the major parties has broken down, so Aussies are jumping off and want to torch it. But we need to pop the hood and fix it. youtu.be/21EZ1_Hyt9M?si=gHoq…
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Martin North retweeted
Some bank economists are moving towards the RBA easing no further concerned largely about property markets (as bank economists do) and seemingly discounting the risk of indirect inflation. The RBA will want to see inflation clearly coming back before concluding it has done enough. Noting that unlike when it eased recently it should be focussing on domestically generated inflation if it wants to be confident inflation will remain sustainably in the target band.
Economists are tipping that interest rate rises are over as a former RBA deputy governor warns about housing headwinds from Labor’s tax changes. ebx.sh/mpKmHf
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DFA Audio: Home Truths About The Australian Economy: With Tarric Brooker digitalfinanceanalytics.com/…

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