With King County results finalized, a few pearls. First, in Seattle, Broadmoor edged out the C/ID for the Trumpiest neighborhood. Still, the rest of the list shows class realignment. Much of South Seattle is now more R than Laurelhurst or Madison Park. 1/2 #waelex
WA Presidential results by city/town are also telling. D list has fewer working-class suburbs & Hispanic towns. Bainbridge Island, Mercer Island, and resort towns like White Salmon & Winthrop now top list. (Despite R swing in Native vote, Nespelem was #1 @ 46-2 Harris.) [2/2]
On Election Night, Seattle's most diverse neighborhoods were also its Trumpiest, with International District (30%) leading the way. Historically Republican Laurelhurst is down to 28th on the list. #waelex
Interactive map of the most recent precinct results in the Washington Lands Commissioner race. For King County, this means as of election night; in the rest, it's likely as of the last report (8/13 or 14 for many).
Pull down Submap for 2nd/3rd/heatmaps
cinycmaps.com/index.php/stat…
No one knows what's going to happen next, but I want to flag one thing in the (fundamentally flawed) questions asking voters about a hypothetical conviction: Biden's gains were among young, nonwhite, irregular, Dem-leaners
nytimes.com/2024/05/30/upsho…
At least in our data, Biden excels among primary voters and still wins the midterm electorate, but gets pummeled among the most irregular voters who are typically underrepresented in political surveys.
I don’t think I’ve ever read something comprehensive on the Democrats’ Parent Problem, but this is interesting.
Putting it all together (caveat: just one survey) it seems like Democrats more specifically developed a “youngish non-white parent problem” in the last four years.
Prob the most striking finding was that the 2nd-best predictor of being a Biden 2020/Trump 2024 swing voter (after being young) was being a non-white parent of a child under 18. V big effect size on a solid sample (2K weighted non-white parents, ~200 Biden-Trump flippers). 7/n
This thread is going around, and it's 90% wrong. First off, this is a random person's house, because @OutragePNW didn't pay attention. A thread. #waelex (1/n)
@OutragePNW could have exposed these real issues with WA's rolls. Instead, he posted a photo of some poor person's house because he misread the address of a homeless shelter. If you care about voting integrity, you deserve sources with integrity...not this stuff. (6/6)
I was late to the party here! The fantastic @Garrett_Archer already spotted these address issues. (From way beyond state lines! OutragePNW didn't need local knowledge to read "77 S Washington St" correctly. Just eyes...) x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/… (7/6)
This is both rage bait and a lie. The intended address is 77 S Washington St, Seattle, which is the address for the Compass Housing Alliance. One of its services is to provide people experiencing homelessness with a mailing address. Washington law allows this for registration.
Final King County results out! On the D side, Uncommitted won UW & nearby areas. Top neighborhoods: NewHolly (35.6%), Broadway (33.6%), Rainier Vista (32.3%), Georgetown (31.9%). Outside of Seattle: SE Redmond (21.8%), Redmond Ridge (21.7%), White Center (17.0%). #waelex (1/x)
Seattle's Trumpiest neighborhoods: International District 28.6%, Broadmoor 16.6%, Rainier Vista 13.1%, Yesler Terrace 13.1%.
Seattle's least Trumpy neighborhoods: Madison Valley 1.6%, Madrona 2.0%, Broadway 2.1%, Wallingford 2.1%. (3/x)
Finally, the R primary. Trump got a majority in the red precincts. Trump's worst showings were Mercer Island (47.0%, losing to Haley), Seattle (49.6%), and Vashon (51.4%). His best were Algona (84.9%), Pacific (83.3%), and SeaTac (81.0%). (4/4)