Qualitative market research integrating geopolitics, economic data, policy, positioning, thematic developments and cross-asset pricing.
Joined February 2024
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Jun 12
We are taking partial profits here.
We will also be launching a public model portfolio soon so every trade can be tracked with full transparency. There will be two portfolios: one for larger, bigger-picture trades and one for intraday ideas.
Only trades that are written out on our private Patreon page or publicly here on X will be counted in the portfolios. No hindsight. No cherry-picking.
Winners and losers will both be visible, along with the analysis behind each trade.
Jun 10
Oil is the market we are watching most closely over the next several sessions.
Trump is warning that the war could continue to rage on, but price is beginning to tell a different story.
Despite the continued escalation rhetoric, oil is struggling to respond the way it should if the geopolitical risk premium were still expanding.
That divergence matters.
$87.50 is the key level.
I am not interested in chasing oil higher or scalping both directions. My only interest is the eventual selloff.
For the short to become actionable, I want a decisive break below $87.50, sellers pressing the move and price failing to reclaim the level. Ideally, that comes alongside a bearish inventory, supply, demand or geopolitical catalyst.
A headline is not enough if price refuses to break. A technical break without a shift in the underlying narrative also reduces conviction.
This is a patience trade, but if price and catalyst align, the next major move in oil could be substantially lower.
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FOMC DECISION TOMORROW
99% ODDS RATES DONT CHANGE PER KALSHI
BUT THE DECISION IS NOT THE MAIN STORY
WARSH TAKES THE MIC AT 2:30PM HIS FIRST PRESSER AS FED CHAIR
DOT PLOT DROPS TOO THAT'S WHERE THE REAL SIGNAL HIDES
TOMORROW WE FIND OUT IF A HIKE IS COMING LATER THIS YEAR
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We have gone back and studied nearly every major bubble and speculative run of the past 100 years. Japan’s late-1980s asset bubble is the one we keep coming back to.
The full article is on Substack, but I attached a few relevant excerpts below.
Valuation always matters, eventually.....
open.substack.com/pub/bearma…
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Just because something may or will go down, does not mean you should short it.
Its important in the public retail world of trading you understand that expressing certain ideas does not have to take place in the vehicle that the idea is based off of.
JUST IN: Michael Burry says he wants to short SpaceX
Community note
Burry criticized SpaceX's valuation, stating "nothing in that S-1 suggests it is worth $1 trillion let alone $2 trillion," but did not say he wants to short it. businessinsider.com/big-short-mich… finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks…
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Bear Market Research retweeted
*SPACEX BECOMES FIFTH-LARGEST STOCK IN WORLD, OVERTAKING AMAZON
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Its going to hard to top our teams first trade.
BREAKING: US oil prices extend losses to -7% on the day, falling below $76/barrel, on news that the US-Iran deal is expected to include sanctions relief.
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Bear Market Research retweeted
JUST IN: Oil plunges to $77 per barrel.
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We have a ton of respect for @michaeljburry but one thing to keep in mind is, predicting a crash is less about the event and more about the time horizon.
Being right in trading is only reflected in P/L.
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Bear Market Research retweeted
CREDIT CARD DELINQUENCIES REMAIN STUBBORNLY HIGH
CREDIT CARD LATE PAYMENTS SIGNAL GROWING CONSUMER STRESS
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Bear Market Research retweeted
STARTER HOME VALUES CLIMB TO NEARLY $200K, ACCORDING TO ZILLOW
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21h
The S&P 500 concentration in AI stocks is now 49% of the index
This is the highest concentration since the railroad bubble in the 1800s
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Bear Market Research retweeted
BREAKING: US oil prices drop below $79/barrel and hit the lowest level since March 10th.
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Bear Market Research retweeted
BREAKING: US oil crashes below $79 for the first time since March 10.
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Jun 15
Charlie Munger: "The world is not driven by greed. It's driven by envy."
"The fact that everybody is 5x better off than they used to be, they take it for granted. All they think about is somebody else having more now when it's not fair that he should have it and they don't."
"I can't change the fact that a lot of people are very unhappy and feel very abused after everything has improved by about 600% because there's still somebody else who has more."
(Daily Journal AGM || 2022)
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Bear Market Research retweeted
Jun 15
Trading perps is obviously not the same thing as trading with a bucket shop, how would you even come to this conclusion? This is an embarrassing level of understanding.
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Bear Market Research retweeted
Jun 15
SpaceX has a morning star rating of 1 out of 5 with a fair value of $63
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Jun 15
One of the best pieces of advice myself and another member of the team were given was on overtrading.
Our manager simply said, "It is not possible to have that many good ideas in a day" and that really stuck with us.
Precision and patience.
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