The chart fixed income doesn't want to look at, via @ChrisJKuiper: Long-term bonds, adjusted for inflation: 40 years underwater from the 1940s to the 1980s. Roughly 30 percent underwater today. "Shallow nominal drawdowns hide what they can actually retire on." The stability of bonds is a nominal illusion.

WORLD CHAMPION NEW YORK KNICKERBOCKERS

The Bitcoin return profile in one stat, via @BackslashBTC: "96, 97% of the time Bitcoin is sideways or down." Time horizon matters more for Bitcoin than for any other asset. Timing it is mathematically the worst strategy.

You are contorting words and definitions to rationalize your own economic incentive, falsely suggesting there is not objectivity (merely different frames) and you have a misunderstanding about volatility. Bitcoin is volatile because it is in the process of being adopted as a new form of money. Every new adopter is pricing bitcoin for the first time, with limited information. The volatility you are trying to engineer around is circular in its logic. The only path to stability is through mass adoption, which necessitates volatility (new adopters pricing it for the first time). Bitcoin will not be volatile when incremental adoption can only represent a fraction rather than a multiple or order of magnitude. Rather than helping people understand bitcoin, your solution is to get them into a bitcoin derivative product that you're selling as not volatile but it will be in any event of market stress, maybe less so than bitcoin but still volatile because it is expressly and inextricably linked to bitcoin and bitcoin adoption. When the bitcoin price goes down significantly, there will always be an incentive to sell your preferred and buy bitcoin because the market interest rate of bitcoin has reset higher when it declines. And related to that is why there's no real long term holder basis for the preferreds (it's a temporary holding pen for everyone) but it does create a permanent capital base for your corporation, if you can sell it. Rather than help people understand bitcoin and manage volatility very logically with an allocation to bitcoin that mutes its volatility, you want people to buy your corporation's stock. And the piece about bitcoin payments is a misnomer. It's a spend vs. save dilemma and spending bitcoin is downstream from someone first coming to understand why bitcoin stores value. But you do not have an incentive in that because you're just trying to justify people buying your corporate stock rather than bitcoin. I'd encourage you to be introspective and to read this piece on volatility to reconsider your rationalization. nakamotoinstitute.org/librar…

CPI: 4.2%. The hottest print in three years. The debate is whether it's energy, whether it's transitory, whether the Fed still cuts. Zoom out. $1,000 in 1913 buys about $23 of goods today. 97.7% of the dollar's purchasing power, gone. A hot print isn't a deviation from the trend. It's the trend, briefly visible. Bitcoin is the money that cannot be inflated away.

The consensus: bitcoin's weakness is capital rotating into the IPO wave. What if it runs the other way? $SPCX insiders are tech-native, bitcoin-literate shareholders finally getting their cash-out. Their employer holds 18,712 BTC and bitcoin is on sale.

The new risk-on / risk-off, per @LeveredUSTs: Risk-on: SpaceX, defense, energy, metals & miners. What the US needs to prevail. Risk-off: gold. The market understands that. Also risk-off: Bitcoin. But the market doesn't understand that yet. The mispricing is the opportunity.

appreciate the amplification pierre! Very few people have heard of @OnrampBitcoin and @Early_Riders so always appreciate you letting people know about the great work we’re doing to further bitcoin. And since you asked, a few corrections: what you call FUD we call education. our proof of work is onboarding billions of dollars and thousands of people to self custody. that experience is exactly how we learned self custody may not be perfect for every person on the planet. the gap was already there. we saw it up close every day, so we built for it. the thread connecting everything we do is simple: we build and invest in things that produce real economic value. early riders is a bitcoin denominated fund that backs real companies generating real revenue. we only win if we outperform bitcoin, with our own btc in the structure alongside our LPs. we don’t speculate, financially engineer, or try to make money on money. and the LP interest in onramp and early riders? that’s external investors wanting exposure to the private bank of the future and future digital infrastructure. demand is a strange thing to be upset about. which raises the question: what is it you’ve actually built again? was it the bitcoin bond company? or is it strive, or do you not work there anymore? genuinely hard to keep track. what we’ve found is that because this is still an early, hobbyist led industry, the loudest educators often haven’t done the work of actually monetizing bitcoin in the real world. and that’s fine, everyone starts somewhere. but have you ever considered that never operating on the commercial side of technology or bitcoin might leave you with a sizable blind spot? just something to reflect on. i know i have. as for the treasury company “FUD,” the misaligned incentives, the lack of ownership, the layered credit risk… none of that needed us to point it out. the market is doing the educating now, which probably explains the tone. losing a narrative tends to make people lash out. same names, same comments, same talking points. keep the spotlight coming though. we don’t hedge when we’re right. we double down. p.s. if you made it this far, use code SPECULATIVEATTACK at signup for an extra 50,000 sats in the comments

This is a false binary. You can be bullish bitcoin and still question corporate strategy, equity dilution, marketing tactics, custody risk, etc. The wrapper around the asset adds layers that require scrutiny. Bitcoin can go up and the wrapper can still underperform.

Proof of reserves is a snapshot. Proof of ownership is a segregated, on-chain vault, verifiable 24/7 outside any platform, that you actually control. Multi-Institution Custody is the second category. Most of the industry is still on the first.

The team @Early_Riders just invested in Stables' pre-seed round, the neutral account layer for the stablecoin economy. Stablecoins are the most bullish indicator for Bitcoin. They normalize digital financial rails at scale, building the institutional familiarity, on-ramps, and infrastructure that accelerate the transition to a Bitcoin-native financial world. Dollars are digitizing, and Bitcoin is the natural end state for digital money. But we are in a transitional period. Stablecoins, tokenized deposits, digital gold, Bitcoin. Every new stablecoin is effectively its own currency, with its own issuer risk, chain risk, and redemption mechanics. A business holding more than one is running a multi-currency treasury without the tools to manage it. That workflow spans five or six vendors today. Proliferation and fragmentation are coming, and every company will need a firm in the middle making it simple. Stables is that firm. Whoever does this at scale wins. Full investment memo in the comments

Early Riders invested in the pre-seed round in Stables, the neutral account layer for the stablecoin economy. A short thread on why fragmentation is the defining problem of the stablecoin era, and why we participated.

The dollar you know is dying. Most are positioned for a system that no longer exists. New TLT with @LeveredUSTs The Dollar Reset Runs Through Bitcoin -2024 as a monetary fork -Why this isn't 2008-2020 redux -Saylor's BTC sale: troll, not signal -Where BTC fits in the endgame

A single dollar leaves Nvidia, gets invested into an AI lab, pays that lab's cloud bill, and lands right back at Nvidia when the cloud restocks on chips. Roughly $1T is now moving in that same loop, and it's quietly reshaping the whole market. This week's Market Brief. 🧵

Proof of reserves is table stakes now. Most platforms have it and that's a good thing. The question nobody asks: what gaps remain? Reserves prove your Bitcoin exists. Custody determines whether it stays yours. Three separate institutions. Three keys. 2-of-3 to move anything. 👇