Friedberg: California Created an Insurance Crisis by Artificially Inflating Home Prices
@friedberg broke it down on episode 210:
-- the frequency of loss is INCREASING for homes in climate-sensitive zones (areas with wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.)
-- this includes parts of los angeles susceptible to wildfires
-- in a free market, the cost of insurance would rise with the increased risk of loss
-- however, california makes it nearly impossible for home insurance providers to increase rates
-- this artificially inflates home prices, due to the massively subsidized insurance costs
" They're driving real estate value up because they're not allowing the cost of insurance of that real estate to naturally float."
" And so by driving real estate values up, the economy looks good, they make property taxes, income comes in."
-- but, major insurance providers like state farm pulled out of certain at-risk areas in the state
-- for example, state farm canceled ~1600 policies in pacific palisades last summer
-- californians living in at-risk areas are now relying on the state's insurance program (the "fair plan") in record numbers
-- according to friedberg, the fair plan has ~$220M of capital with ~$5B of reinsurance
-- after this string of wildfires, the program has ~$6B of exposure in the pacific palisades alone, and could have $24B in total losses
-- so, california's state insurance plan is effectively bankrupt, and will need a bailout
" At the end of the day, the bill is going to come due."
"And at some point, taxpayers are going to look at the fact that they're paying some percentage of their income to support someone else's home value, and they're going to say 'Enough is enough.'"