I'm extremely pleased that a peace deal, or at least a framework has been agreed between the US and Iran. Well done to Pakistan, our PM, Interior Minister and Field Marshal who tirelessly Quarterbacked the mediation efforts. Lots of thanks to Qatar, Turkey, KSA, Bahrain and the UAE.
This disastrous campaign had to end. A war of a terrible choice by the US President, who was dumb enough to be duped into it by the Israeli PM. A horrible miscalculation which has ended up weakening the US militarily, economically and geopolitically. The US President is touting a potential deal which is far worse for the US than the one that was in place which he chose to walk out from, again, at the behest of Israel. What can you expect from a man who has bankrupted businesses all his life?
In my opinion there are two clear winners, and two clear losers from this war. Everyone else is on a wait and see holding pattern.
Clear winners: Iran and China. Iran, despite the loss of thousands of civilian lives, damage to military, and other losses, defied, defeated and forced the greatest war machine in the history of mankind to desperately negotiate the end of the war. There is no denying this and there is no grey area here. They are going to walk away from this sanctions free, with their frozen funds, and military strength in the region. Iran has won BIGLY.
China has established itself as the World superpower. Of course, the peace deal that everyone is celebrating could not have come about without Beijingโs go ahead. China will be where the world looks to for direction going forward. THe future is not about military might. It is about commerce, development, and sustainability. China can answer those questions. The US cannot.
Clear losers: Ive mentioned the US. Israel is in a worse position. No matter how many civilians it kills in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel is not being viewed as a military power. Iran proved that over and over again in the last few months. There are no fighter jets or bombs or missiles that can counter the genuine disdain and contempt that the World has for Israel. No amount of AIPAC paid war mongering Senators or Zionist celebrities will help. And the view particularly inside the US has turned against this rogue, genocidal State. The future for Israel is bleak. The World celebrates Israelโs failures. And Israelis have no one to blame but themselves.
Everyone else is in strange and difficult positions.
Pakistan: has to somehow ensure that their huge diplomatic victories, translate into long term economic gains. That we become an investment destination along with being an international player. International Investment is far more valuable than International praise. Otherwise, there is no real progress.
GCC: Have to come to terms about the reality of Iran. Must learn to co exist with a sanctions free and militarily dominant Iran. It was smart of UAE to release Iranian funds in the last few days. KSA, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait will need to also stand with Iran going forward.
EU: Are in a bind clearly about whether to continue aligning themselves with a failing and bumbling United States, or to look towards the East. I think its a choice between Politics and Economic survival. And the Europeans will invariably take the worst decision possible.
Russia: Any advantages or gains from the US defeat are limited because of their own ongoing costly campaign in the Ukraine. If they are also to position themselves are the major world player in energy and geopolitics, they need to end their own war too. Otherwise, this will be a huge opportunity squandered.
India: despite the economy and the market, it has proven that its not a serious player on the International Stage. There is a shift that's desperately needed. Modi doctrine is on its last legs. And the struggling Indian Economy and their irrelevance on the World stage is proof.
On the whole its a good day. Let there be peace in the region, especially for the people of Iran, Gaza and Lebonan.
Well played Pakistan. We need similar resounding victories on the economic front now.