GOLD - the only true money that has no liability side or need for miners. It is time tested & is what humans go back to in times of stress. "Gold is money, everything else is credit" - JP Morgan A Gold Tweet Compilation In Anticipation of the Return of the King🧵

Benny & the 🐿️ cover prediction markets, the implication of the Anthropic Mythos export ban, AI capex and equity supply and review Sunday night futures against the backdrop of the US/Iran 'DocuSigned' MoU. Never miss aSunday Show. @benbrey youtu.be/1bZ93pD7ToE

If you want a little inside baseball on the Space X deal with two former deal captains as a pre game show for the IPO enjoy @SquirrelMacro & Craig Coben tearing it up last night!

Hot off the press - with 6 hours to go - Benny & I just sat down with Craig Coben, former Global Head of ECM at Bank of America Merrill for some last minute thoughts and predictions on the SpaceX IPO. @BenBrey @thekrazykobra youtu.be/a04K_1InvWs

You have noticed it. ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer. The internet itself feels like it is shrinking. Every article reads the same. Every email sounds the same. Every answer sounds like it was written by the same voice. You thought it was you. It is not you. Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge published a paper in Nature proving what is happening. They call it Model Collapse. Here is the mechanism in one sentence. AI trained on AI-generated data gets dumber every generation until it forgets what real human data looked like. The internet is filling with AI-generated content. Blog posts. Articles. Reviews. Comments. Social media. AI companies scrape the internet to train the next generation of models. Which means the next generation of AI is being trained on the output of the current generation. Each cycle loses information. Not randomly. It loses the rarest, most unusual, most creative parts first. The researchers call these the "tails of the distribution." The weird ideas. The unexpected perspectives. The things that made the internet feel human. Those disappear first. What remains is the average. The safe. The expected. The bland. Then the next generation trains on that. And loses more. And the next generation trains on that. And loses more. The researchers proved this is not a slow decline. Major degradation happens within just a few iterations. Even when some of the original human data is preserved. They tested it on large language models. On image generators. On statistical models. The pattern was the same every time. The output converges toward a narrow, flattened version of reality that looks nothing like the original data. The lead researcher put it plainly. "Large language models are like fire. A useful tool. But one that pollutes the environment." The pollution is invisible. You cannot see which sentence on the internet was written by a human and which was written by AI. Neither can the AI that is about to train on it. And once the tails are gone, they do not come back. The damage is irreversible. This is not a prediction anymore. It is a diagnosis. The internet you grew up on was built by humans writing things no algorithm would have written. Strange, personal, imperfect, alive. That internet is being diluted. One generation of AI at a time. And the models trained on what remains are learning a smaller and smaller version of the world. Model Collapse is not a technical problem. It is a cultural one. The thing that made the internet worth reading is the thing that disappears first.

Tomorrow night the underwriters will give the official stamp on the SpaceX deal. John Law would have understood every line of the term sheet, admired the retail allocation, envied the index plumbing, & asked only the one question he failed to answer in time: What happens to a System when it stops growing? He found out in eleven months. We trade Friday. @SquirrelMacro capitalmisallocation.com/p/t…

Very important point: SoftBank was pledging *all* of its OpenAI stock (worth $60bn on paper) to get a $6 billion margin loan. Banks turned it down due to concerns about the value of OpenAI stock. Banks clearly do not think OpenAI is worth $852 billion. tradingkey.com/analysis/stoc…

The news just broke that SoftBank could not secure a 6bn$ vs its OpenAI shares Let me tell you a thing: if you cannot secure a 6bn$ loan against collateral you claim is worth ~100bn$, then the latter isn't worth ~100bn$. In this case, it might be worth not much more than 6bn$.

Jack Clark - legendary hype AI hype man - now unveiling Mythos like he just discovered penicillin in a basement lab. Son... it's a chatbot. The only thing it's going to infect is S&P 500 companies PnL's on "loop"... #FauxSkynet Check out this chat below from Reddit. The market is wildly confused about the emerging business model dynamics in play & the Magnetar esque funding structure. I can't go into more here but expect me to really unleash on this entire cycle and the gap between perception and reality that has in a "soros" manner created a reflexive flywheel. Mean reversion from extreme deviations from reality is truly one of the most entertaining things in the world to B Brey. This all reminds me of how I felt 20 years ago when there were no "compounder bros" wearing vests around Manhattan talking about "....maxxing" anything. There is an entire generation on the street who have never seen a true capex boom bust credit cycle. This is where the opportunity lies. Consider me the "anti-Jack Clark".... we are about to embark on the part of the cycle where all those unitiated will look back & remember. LFG it's beginning and when narratives reinforced with faith based investing and credit and massive equity unwind the transmission mechanism is really something to witness. The vest bros will remember this the way the CDO bros, whom didn't wear vests, still do as they underwrite the modern equivalent at PC / PE firms.

Oil just hit an extreme relative to its 300 month moving average. Not the 50 day. Not the 200 day. The 300 month. This level has only been reached three times in history. One of them was 1956 to 1957 during the Suez Canal crisis. Oil is at $108 on the front month. Rates are ripping. And then there is the Korean market. The hottest market in the world just had around 4 to 5% gap down opens in a single week. Repeatedly. That kind of move in a country's index is essentially unheard of outside of COVID. And this time the S&P is sitting at all time highs. That is the part worth paying attention to. The S&P and the Nasdaq are not telling the story right now. Look at what is moving around them.

The most basic way AI could blow up imo. I'm not saying it does but this is the most obvious way I can see it happening - Per seat subscriptions are massively subsidized. The flat fee was priced way below what heavy usage actually costs - For real business use you have to move to the API anyway. Data protections, work integrations and compliance officer approval - On the API you pay metered rates, and businesses are burning credits way faster than the per seat pricing ever led them to expect - This is everywhere right now. Internally for us, Codex users, Uber torching its entire 2026 AI budget in 4 months, the Microsoft comments. Just go try an API I shared more on this here: x.com/Shaughnessy119/status/… - And I don't think most businesses have the money to keep paying increasing API rates without a real change to how they operate (caps needed) - Because they have a cheap alternative. They can reach open source models through any aggregator (OpenRouter, Venice, Baseten, Together) and still get strong privacy. Venice private data centers, or E2EE/TEE serving GLM 5.1. More on open source inference provider raises here: x.com/Shaughnessy119/status/… - And the discount is enormous. DeepSeek V4 codes within a hair of Opus on SWE bench at roughly 1/30th the price, and the cheapest open models run closer to 1/100th - Chinese labs open source frontier grade models. The model is the single biggest cost an inference provider has, and they get it for free - This idea dies if China goes closed source. That is actually bullish web2 AI labs, because if everyone is closed you pay up for the best intelligence. China goes closed source if they are tired of giving away an asset and they want the revenue and data flow to train new models - Is this showing up in web2 AI lab revenue yet? No. Revenue is off the charts. Anthropic went from 9B to 47B run rate in five months - So go forward, what happens? - I think revenue slowly starts leaking to the open source inference providers (see Venice usage, OpenRouter's $113M raise, Baseten is raising at $11B or triple its valuation in three months, on revenue that went from $200M to $600M annualized in a single quarter) - It doesnt move overnight, but it caps the labs ability to raise prices, and margins are already deeply negative. OpenAI is reportedly running near negative 122% - With margins that bad there is no cash flow, so the labs are fully dependent on outside capital to buy GPUs, train models, and keep subsidizing usage (I.e. see Google tapping $80b equity sale, granted 30b for employee RSU taxes. Clearly they think Equity is overvalued or you wouldn't sell it) - The break comes when that capital stops. Pricing is capped so margins cant improve, and the moment investors lose conviction on payback, the whole flow reverses - Why would they lose conviction on payback? Back to the start - the inability to improve margins or get businesses to pay more - This is also limiting, if we start making new drugs with AI or create entirely new businesses, you better believe people will pay up to the max for AI usage

The Sunday Show is LIVE. #SupplyIsComing @BenBrey youtu.be/lIAkChsaYEY?si=jlzy…

The AI narrative phase transition from “Token Maxxing” & “Agentic AI” to “AI ROI” & “Token Cost Optimization” likely has crossed the rubicon.

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC is now ready to execute "Operation True Promise 5" against Israel tonight, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei having authorized the full-scale resumption of war and Iran's Supreme National Security Council convening an emergency session, saying a "painful and decisive response" will come in response to Beirut strikes, per Iranian state TV. Iran has issued an evacuation warning to all residents in northern Israeli territory to immediately leave, with coordinates of Israeli targets now transferred to missile units.

For my entire career, one thing has always been consistent: Wall Street hates job creation. They view jobs as expenses...more hiring means more labor costs. Want to pump your stock 10% on any given day? Announce layoffs It really is capital vs labor Sorry...I just call it as I see it

Just remember an enemble average story of history doesn't understand this and that is the story that you have been pavlovian conditioned on you whole life...

Preview of what is coming. I have a proper research project that I am working on now for the sake of "the graph" not this individual node...something that most legacy winners in this age of self-interested nodes would only do to gain PR. #NRGISMONEY

Serious question: So if every LLM agent inevitably lies due to inevitable error propagation of an autoregressive optimization model (Read LLM Transformer) structural feature are we really saying that we need to pay humans trained at engineering level to simply make them lie less? This is where we are at - LoL 👀 Funniest part is this post probably was meant to be promotional…

This nine-month contract has more easy outs than a kid’s t-ball game. $GOOG $SPCX

Serious question - does this look like there is any end user ROI of this spend for this particular use case?

*META WEIGHS RAISING TENS OF BILLIONS IN STOCK OFFERING: FT GOOG $80b equity offering Monday, now META mulling over a large offering. Guess I wasn't too far off when I told The Squirrel (@SquirrelMacro) that Mag7 equity offerings were around the corner last Sunday on the "Unmissable Sunday Show" - that is why you don't miss a Sunday show folks.