I don't have a ton to speculate about after the IPO, but I will leave a few of my thoughts.
In my opinion, SpaceX likely becomes the largest company in the world. I've been pondering about why Elon is pioneering rockets that can land and be reused. He makes it out to be that it's for space travel........ but if it were....... why would the rocket need to come back here?
Elon has spoken about the efficiencies of solar in outer space, therein lies the meat and potatoes. The solar power itself is stronger in space, but then also much much cooler. Which means data processing will eventually be more efficient as well, if done in outer space.
He's going to build a solar satellite, eventually with the capabilities and batteries strong enough enough to justify launching a rocket back and fourth- taking over part of the energy market but then also giving the electricity industry a different way to pivot rather than rebuilding our power grid.
This solar power will also power a data processing satellite that will dwarf the capabilities of on earth data centers, also hopefully reducing the failure rates as the satellite will be in a more stable environment.
Then on top of that Starlink is going to take so much of the 3rd world countries internet market it will be insane.
Don't just look at space x and think mars. Look at space x as a company, the first company, to take advantage of the benefits space offers. Mind you a lot of those benefits aren't even realized yet...... because they haven't been utilized previously. Do you really think Bezos wanted to commercialize inter space flight? Or do you think he caught on to the goals on Elon and gave a half ass crack at it to see if he could compete knowing if Elon is successful he will thwart pretty much anything or any company that attempts to repeat him. Good luck competing with space x until you spend the amount of money and time on trials and research on rocket development as space x. Mind you the US government had to ask him for help in that regard. Bezos knew that if he couldn't keep up with Elon on this, nothing will. No one, no company, no other entity would spend billions and billions to learn how to do what SpaceX has already done.
That's why they will be the most valuable company in existence. They essentially patented space travel, and then are going to use it to superpower global energy and technology infrastructure. In doing so will provide scaling capabilities for AI and other technology that dwarf anything in comparison. Bezos knew if he couldn't capitalize now, Elons going to capitalize on everything going into the future. He's going to make Rockefeller money pocket change in comparison.
SPACEX COULD BECOME THE BIGGEST EXIT LIQUIDITY EVENT IN MARKET HISTORY.
And the data backs it.
Most of the biggest IPOs of the last 15 years eventually crashed hard after listing.
• Robinhood: -90%
• Rivian: -88%
• Lyft: -79%
• Uber: -68%
• Palantir: -53%
• Coinbase: -57%
• Snap: -56%
• Twitter: -58%
• Facebook: -54%
The median max drawdown across major IPOs was around -54% within 1 year.
And these were not small companies.
Most of them were industry leaders, heavily hyped by media, backed by top institutions, and considered “must own” stocks before listing.
Now look at SpaceX.
The company is reportedly targeting a valuation of around $1.75-$2 TRILLION.
That would instantly make it one of the largest companies in the world.
At the same time:
• Retail demand is extremely high
• The IPO float may stay very small
• And early investors are sitting on massive gains from private rounds.
This is the exact setup where IPO prices can disconnect from fundamentals very quickly.
History shows retail investors usually enter during peak excitement while early investors slowly get liquidity after listing.
Facebook became a great business long term. Still, its stock max drawdown within a year was 54%.
Coinbase became one of the largest crypto companies in the world. Still, its stock max drawdown within a year was 57%.
A successful company does not always mean it'll go up only after IPO.
That is the part retail investors usually ignore during highly hyped listings and become the exit liquidity.