Latin American politics & barbecue. Editor-in-chief @amerquarterly "O mais brasileiro dos texanos." Opinions mine.

Joined December 2010
2,819 Photos and videos
Brian Winter retweeted
OMG, listen to the Mexican announcers on team USA's 3rd goal going completely off-script I haven't laughed this hard in a long time! "Oh my f*cking goodness" 😂
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not even Batman could save that city tn 😂
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Brian Winter retweeted
Remarkable statement by General Donovan, Commander of @Southcom. Thanking the “Venezuelan security forces” for the take down of the leader of Tren de Aragua. The level of cooperation b/w the US military & the FANB is incredible, particularly if we remember that before January 3rd the FANB’s operational posture were linked to Russian supply & equipment, & was intimately involved in aiding illicit networks not combating them. @delcyrodriguezv & Co., and the FANB have shifted rapidly to accommodate & cooperate with the US. #Venezuela
“We extend our gratitude to the Venezuelan security forces for their support to the successful joint operation against a Tren de Aragua compound that resulted in the death of the narco-terrorist organization’s leader Hector Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, alias “Niño Guerrero.” Guerrero was a wanted fugitive charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with ordering, directing, and facilitating acts of terrorism and violence in the United States.” - #SOUTHCOM Commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan
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Daughter of “El Chino” seen as strong against China. Neither is actually from China. Only in LatAm!!
Why is the victory of Keiko Fujimori in Peru so important for the US. Simple, keep removing China out of the hemisphere. After Mexico and Panama, the largest investment made in the Western Hemisphere by the Chinese has been in Peru, in Chankay. Hopefully, a more US-friendly government with Keiko will allow the US to rebalance the country with more US presence.
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Brian Winter retweeted
¿Qué impacto político tienen los grandes eventos deportivos—o, por asociación, los velorios multitudinarios? Ninguno, argumenta @BrazilBrian
Could the World Cup affect Brazil’s presidential election? A fun look at the history, and a prediction:
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Could the World Cup affect Brazil’s presidential election? A fun look at the history, and a prediction:
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Amazing. 97.887% of ballots counted, only 9,000 votes separating the candidates. People I trust still believe Keiko will win - barely - in the final count
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Brian Winter retweeted
Latin America’s Data Center Gold Rush: Myth and Reality The region is moving into the AI era through data centers—but sizable investment alone won't guarantee development. The winners will be the countries that pair digital infrastructure with smart energy, water, talent, and industrial policies, argues Eduardo Levy Yeyati in his most recent essay for Americas Quarterly. An important reality check on the region's data center "gold rush" only at @AmerQuarterly. #LatinAmerica #DataCenters #AI #DigitalInfrastructure #TechPolicy #EconomicDevelopment #EnergyTransition americasquarterly.org/articl…
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Classic case of American “main character” syndrome, thanks for playing
Ever since USAID was defunded and thousands of NGO contracts were cancelled, left wing parties are losing in Central and South America. Right-wing presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori just won the Peru election. This continues the trend of other countries rejected socialism.
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Polymarket go to hell
Peruvian shamans have predicted that Roberto Sánchez will win the current election and become the next President of Peru.
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Brian Winter retweeted
Las actas del extranjero llegando al conteo de la ONPE.
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It could be days, or even weeks, before we know the result of the latest battle in the "It's a right-wing wave" versus "It's an anti-incumbent wave" LatAm pundit wars
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A “heart attack election,” writes the always incisive @Zovatto55 in this good analysis
ELECCIONES PERÚ 🇵🇪 2026 | BALANCE DE LA NOCHE ELECTORAL Buenos días. Te saludo desde Lima y te deseo un excelente inicio de semana. 📊 BOCA DE URNA Y CONTEO RÁPIDO: LA REVERSIÓN La noche del 7 de junio deparó una reversión según las dos encuestadoras: 🔹 IPSOS (con Transparencia y NDI) Boca de urna (al cierre de mesas, 5 p.m.): • Keiko Fujimori: 50.7% • Roberto Sánchez: 49.3% → Diferencia: 1.4 puntos. Leve ventaja a Keiko. Conteo rápido integral al 100% (más robusto: lee directamente las actas): • Roberto Sánchez: 50.3% • Keiko Fujimori: 49.7% → Diferencia: 0.6 puntos. La ventaja se invierte y pasa a Sánchez. 🔹 DATUM Internacional Boca de urna (flash electoral al cierre de mesas): • Keiko Fujimori: 50.53% • Roberto Sánchez: 49.47% → Diferencia: 1.06 puntos. Leve ventaja a Keiko. Conteo rápido: • Roberto Sánchez: 50.14% • Keiko Fujimori: 49.86% → Diferencia: 0.28 puntos. De nuevo, la ventaja se invierte hacia Sánchez. CONCLUSIÓN ESTADÍSTICA: En los cuatro instrumentos estamos ante un empate técnico. El margen de error del conteo rápido es de ±1.9%, lo que hace que ninguna cifra sea concluyente. Lo notable es que tanto Ipsos como Datum mostraron la misma reversión: en los boca de urna lideraba Keiko, y en los conteos rápidos —más precisos— lideraba Sánchez, siempre por diferencias mínimas. ⚖️ RESULTADOS ONPE – 8 de junio, 7 a.m. | 92.459% de actas contabilizadas • Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular): 50.180% — • Roberto Sánchez (Juntos por el Perú): 49.820% — • Diferencia: 63 mil votos a favor de Fujimori Dato crucial: la brecha se ha ido reduciendo de forma sostenida toda la noche. Al 70% de actas superaba los 700,000 votos; al 91.5%, ya era de solo 113,630 y ahira está en apenas 63 mil. La razón es clara: las actas que van llegando son de zonas rurales e interior del país, que históricamente son más favorables a Sánchez. Ojo: 1,500 actas han sido derivadas al Jurado Electoral Especial (JEE) o para su revisión. 🔍 ANÁLISIS Y CONCLUSIÓN De momento no hay un ganador claro. Situación de empate técnico. El final sigue siendo completamente incierto. Aún falta ingresar cerca del 7.5% de actas, concentradas principalmente en zonas rurales —más favorables a Sánchez— y el voto en el exterior, que por lo general tiende a inclinarse hacia Keiko Fujimori. Ambos bloques podrían compensarse parcialmente. Pero el factor decisivo serán las 1,500 actas observadas, que representan como mínimo unos 300,000 votos. Estas deberán ser revisadas por los Jurados Electorales Especiales y, si hay impugnaciones, finalmente por el Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE). Tal como señaló el presidente del JNE, los resultados oficiales podrían conocerse recién hacia mediados de julio. Resumiendo: Como anticipamos ayer en nuestro análisis una elección de infarto que se definirá voto por voto, a través de la justicia electoral. Por tercera vez consecutiva —2016, 2021 y ahora 2026— el Perú vive una definición presidencial extremadamente ajustada. Con el traspaso de mando fijado para el 28 de julio, se vienen semanas de altísima tensión. 🇵🇪
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NEW: “Once again, as in the two previous presidential elections, Peruvians will face demands for vote recounts, allegations of irregularities (and fraud), and, above all, the absence of a political pact that upholds the basic democratic principle of majority rule: the candidate with one more vote than the other wins. This will undoubtedly fuel a new political cycle marked by distrust, parliamentary obstructionism, and, even worse, attempts to remove the president from office.” — Jorge Morel of Instituto de Estudios Peruanos americasquarterly.org/articl…
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If you REALLY crunch the numbers on the Peru election result, factoring in remaining rural vote (favoring Sánchez), plus the still-uncounted ballots abroad (Keiko), and include idiosyncratic tendencies of the Amazon region, what you get is... (checks notes) ... a tie. 😉
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Congratulations to Peru for its extraordinary national talent for holding 50-50 elections, that's three in a row now, really something.
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