Happy to place a prop bet on the regulatory outcome for hyperliquid

NEW: BINANCE SAYS “DUE TO HEAVY MARKET ACTIVITY, OUR SYSTEMS ARE UNDER HIGH LOAD. SOME USERS MAY EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT DELAYS OR DISPLAY ISSUES”

A market, an oracle, and a dream One area where crypto has unmistakable PMF is in the creation and trading of new markets. Over the last few years, tokens, bonding curves, and AMMs have been the core primitives for this — great for minting net‑new, onchain native assets, and leading to an explosion of experimentation with memecoins, content coins, social tokens. However, we’ve only barely begun to scratch the surface of new markets enabled by another crypto primitive — perpetual futures. It makes sense why: the token deployment stack has matured over the past few years, with protocols like @dopplerprotocol continuing to push the envelope. But the permissionless perps stack is only now arriving. Enter @HyperliquidX's builder deployed perps (HIP3). Hyperliquid exposes its orderbook and matching engine so builders can launch perp markets without rebuilding an exchange from scratch. Deployers define the market (specs, oracle, leverage limits), run it (maintain the oracle), and can iterate on UX and fees. In other words, the technical challenges of creating new perp markets has been reduced to near zero, and new perp market creation is now primarily a coordination problem of flows, liquidity, and capital. If you can find a group of people who want to speculate on a number going up or down and connect it to the real world with a credible oracle, you can create a market. Market oracle demand. That’s the HIP3 recipe. What kinds of perps markets will we see? Zoom out and the HIP3 opportunity set looks like a distribution w/ a fat head, chunky middle, and long tail: Fat head: The obvious high-volume stuff – S&P/Nasdaq style indices (@unitxyz), major FX pairs, core commodities. These already have robust reference prices and deep market‑maker coverage. With HIP3, they can exist as perps without onchain spot inventory — all they need is a reliable index and counterparties willing to quote around it. And for many of these assets, perps are actually easier to list than spot because the oracle handles the tethering rather than needing to wrap the spot assets into tokens. Chunky middle: This is where HIP3 starts to really shine – think private companies (@ventuals), luxury goods baskets, GPU compute cost per hour, or a city’s median price per sqft for real estate. The common trait is that a significant number of people and/or pools of capital care about a number that updates in the world and can be indexed. They want to get exposure, hedge, or speculate. Long tail: The permissionless frontier – the price per oz of bluefin tuna in NYC, the resale price of a Tesla Model 3, the Google Trend score of an e-commerce brand, the average nightly rate of a 5 star hotel in London, or other more wacky ideas. This is the area of experimentation where few CEXs would be willing to venture out into. But it's where builders with a strong grasp of a niche may see latent demand where others don't. One standard, many markets Across this entire spectrum, HIP3 keeps the mental model simple. The oracle ties the perp to a reference number, funding nudges the perp towards that number over time, and margin tiers shape the risk that traders can take on. The deployer is accountable for the oracle definition ongoing publication and puts up a meaningful HYPE stake, which gives traders a credible assurance that markets are being run with clear responsibilities. And because operators have levers for differentiation, we should expect many parallel subdexes to spring up on Hyperliquid’s rails – each competing on price, depth, and UX. This competition will be great for end users. Why is this bullish for Hyperliquid? While HIP3 is an amazing unlock for builders, it’s also very good for Hyperliquid. Successful HIP3 markets add flow, depth, and attention to the network. The standard ascribes a meaningful share of fees back to the protocol itself, reinforcing the HYPE value accrual flywheel. HIP3 commoditizes the exchange layer and shifts innovation to market design and demand origination. Instead of a single venue trying to list everything, Hyperliquid becomes the base infrastructure for many specialized venues. Expect an explosion of markets and rapid natural selection by users and market-makers for which venues and perps they want to trade. And there’s a cultural unlock here, too. Anyone with a market and demand thesis the ability to index it can build an exchange for users to express directional views. The next billion users Hyperliquid’s HIP3 opens up a vast design space that didn’t exist before — markets that appeal more broadly to normies because they're tethered to *something* in the real world. Undoubtedly some markets will fail; that’s fine. But the winners across the fat head, chunky middle, and long tail will compound volume, liquidity, and attention back into the Hyperliquid ecosystem. As an industry, we started with tokens, bonding curves, and AMMs to create new internet native assets — some of these experiments have worked out spectacularly. For most others, the jury is still out. With the permissionless primitive of perps, we can create new internet native markets for virtually anything that can be measured. It'll be exciting to see what builders come up with. HIP3RLIQUID

Phantom is integrating Hyperliquid perps. That’s 15 million MAUs now seeing a perp trading experience front and center on their home screen. Phantom is one of the most widely used wallets in crypto with 15 million monthly active users, $25 billion in self-custody assets, $20 billion in annual swap volume, and about 12 app opens per day per user. The Phantom integration means users will be able to trade Hyperliquid perps directly from the wallet interface, without any bridging or additional wallet setup required. If just 10% of Phantom’s user base converts into Hyperliquid traders, that’s 1.5 million wallets entering the Hyperliquid ecosystem, which would nearly double the addressable user base for onchain perp trading overnight. On Binance, Bybit, and OKX, spot volumes make up roughly 27% of perp volumes. Phantom does $20 billion/year in swaps (spot trades). If that ratio holds, it implies ~$74 billion in potential perp flow latent in Phantom’s user base. What’s interesting is that Phantom picked Hyperliquid Builder Codes and not Jupiter perps. In a chain abstracted world, products are no longer limited by their native stack and can focus instead on liquidity and fee economics. Builder code lets partners like Phantom add a monetization layer on top of their UX, while offering users near-institutional pricing, equivalent to Binance VIP1, which normally requires $15M in monthly volume. Phantom wins by monetizing distribution. The user wins by getting low fees and better execution. Hyperliquid wins by growing its user base and order flow. Looking forward, Phantom has significantly derisked the idea of integrating Hyperliquid. I expect more wallet frontends, interfaces, aggregators, and Tier 2/3 exchanges to follow. As more frontends integrate Hyperliquid, the protocol’s liquidity deepens, its fee model strengthens, and its backend becomes even more attractive for new interfaces. Hyperliquid.

The @HyperliquidX premium is real

Eyenovia, a publicly traded company, is buying $50M worth of HYPE and staking all of it ir.eyenovia.com/news-release… H/t @ericonomic

If you want to have a quick way to check if HYPE is undervalued based on cash flows, check the chart below: First, you have to look for your assumption of Free Cash Flow for the next 12 months in the X axis of the chart. Then, you slap a P/FCF (Market Cap/Free Cash Flow) ratio on top of it, so you can find the fair price for HYPE based on the Y axis (RHS) and the dashed lines (constant P/FCF ratios). As an example: I created multiple HYPE points along the 20x P/FCF line to show my bear case for HYPE given many different future Free Cash Flows assumptions. Hyperliquid.

The Genesis Stage laid the foundation. Now it’s time for the Echo. Welcome to the next phase of Liminal. A new wave of access, still curated, with an exclusive new feature: Self-Custody.

The JELLY perps book is closed, and HLP's short at $0.011 also closed in profit at $0.0095, for a realized PnL of $703k. I'm guessing this is the team is making depositors whole. Historically, they always make sure their community is taken care of. Hyperliquid

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