Long term tech bull but sometimes cynical bear

Joined September 2020
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The phrase "software is eating the world" is about to become a teenager: bullfight.substack.com/p/pet…

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Couldn’t ask for better PR…
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Dan Durn back to semis after top ticking software 🤔
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Nice try IGV
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Hyperscalers knowing they need to rip debt and capex after seeing Google
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A game that has no winners >> who will hire the most Salesforce execs and employees in 3 months?
Another Anthropic vs OpenAI 🍿showdown happening right now… who will hire the most Salesforce execs and employees in 3 months? will Enterprise sales then outnumber the research teams at the frontier labs? And how will that change their company cultures? Just asking questions
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Is tokenmaxxing already becoming tokenminning?
🦔Uber's COO Andrew Macdonald said on Saturday that the company is having a harder time justifying its AI spend. After CTO Praveen Neppalli Naga went viral in April for admitting Uber burned through its 2026 Claude Code budget in four months, senior engineering leaders concluded higher token usage was not translating into proportionally more useful product. Macdonald said the link between AI consumption and shipped features is "not there yet." CEO Dara Khosrowshahi confirmed on the earnings call that Uber is slowing hiring to fund its AI spend. Duolingo also walked back its decision to include AI usage in performance reviews last month. My Take Uber is the first major enterprise where the C-suite has publicly admitted, on the record, that the AI productivity story is not closing for them. That matters because Uber is not a skeptic. The company went all-in on AI tooling, set internal targets, and burned through its annual research and development budget in four months trying to make it work. The conclusion from the people running the experiment is that tokens consumed and value shipped are not the same number, and management is finally noticing. Duolingo's reversal lands in the same week for a reason. CEO Luis von Ahn said employees were asking whether they needed to use AI just to use AI, which is Goodhart's Law showing up in a performance review system. When usage becomes the metric, employees optimize for usage, not output. Microsoft canceled internal Claude Code licenses, Google AI Pro stripped credits from paid subscribers, and now Uber is admitting the ROI does not close at scale. The narrative has shifted in the last 30 days from "AI productivity is here" to "AI productivity is harder to measure than we thought." The companies pushing tokenmaxxing internally are now the same companies signaling cost pressure externally. The IPO calendar for OpenAI and Anthropic is going to get a lot more complicated if the largest enterprise customers keep saying this out loud. Hedgie🤗
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Growth mode evolves with each SW generation: Originally was Sales Led Growth (SLG) Then Product Led Growth (PLG) Now it’s Token Led Growth (TLG)
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$50b by end of next month means only adding $6b in May June combined after >$10b or more last few months? Impressive… but still
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Cabinet members dropping faster than SaaS analysts… already lost one Kash, seems destined to lose another
TULSI GABBARD RESIGNS -FOX NEWS
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Kash, Keith and now Mark… dropping like flies
J.P. Morgan software equity research analyst Mark Murphy is leaving the firm. He is joining Salesforce as Head of Investor Relations, according to my sources. This is second high-profile sell-side analyst departure for the software sector this year after the departure of Keith Weiss from Morgan Stanley.
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Probably starts by not thinking about friends as “net new” or “non-transactional”
but seriously has anyone in the bay area figured out how to make net new, non-transactional friendships as an adult?
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Are “neutral FDEs” just GSIs?
Once again @sytaylor tells people where the puck is going. Our B2B customers dating back to Q4 confirm that companies want “neutral FDEs” and infra.
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Was hoping his first pod appearance would be on @TheRewatchables
Tomorrow… Krishna Rao, the CFO of Anthropic, in his first podcast appearance
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At what point does OpenAI just acquire AXOM Partners?
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Last cycle it was Assure, this cycle it’s @HeyCanopy… these SPV companies can’t resist hanging customers out to dry
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Not as crazy as the back to back to back AAU national champions
Craziest back to back I’ve ever seen
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Probably bullish tbh
Goated playlist for firing people ngl
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New for financial services: ready-to-run Claude agent templates for building pitches, conducting valuation reviews, closing the books at month-end, and more. Install them as plugins in Cowork and Claude Code, or use our cookbooks to run them in production as Managed Agents.
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Spirit, iRobot, Figma… the body count from the Lina Khan doctrine is piling up
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Podcast appearances are inversely correlated with market share
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