My Bear Market Thesis - 100% hit rate across all the Bitcoin bear markets years.
Track record:
Bitcoin topped in October 2025.
In November 2025, I correctly identified that Bitcoin had entered a bear market, when the overall sentiment was bullish.
Since then, I said I would not start DCA’ing back into the market until Bitcoin was rejected from the 200-day moving average and reached the 200-week moving average. That has now happened.
It has been around 9 months since the cycle top, Bitcoin is down roughly 51%, and only now am I considering a small DCA back into the market.
But I do not believe the bear-market low is confirmed yet.