As someone who’s used Adobe for 10 years, their real moat has always been the depth of their tools/software, the proprietary file formats, and the enormous catalog of users’ existing design files.
By baking native AI directly into the apps, are they eroding the very “layers” and tool complexity that made the software sticky? The more users rely on these AI features, the less they actually need to master the traditional 25-year UI and full toolset. That not only lowers switching costs but also opens the door for competitors offering specialized, lower-cost AI tools that can bypass much of Adobe’s ecosystem entirely.
Once you factor in a lot of entry-level competitors like Canva etc too, or vibe-coding (skipping design all together) - this could also be a headwind. Unless they can manage to capture more market share with Express Firefly.