Insights and research on the US economy from Capital Economics. Subscribe: bit.ly/1EuCc7Q Follow our other accounts: bit.ly/1FTgAcK
Joined May 2015
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14 Feb 2024
It's happening again, everyone over-reacting to CPI and missing that core PCE is going to come in on-target.
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6 Feb 2024
$NYCB isn't the canary in the coalmine that signals bad CRE loans are a systemic threat to the banking system. Here's the industry-wide delinquency rate. 👇
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Capital Economics - US retweeted
31 Jan 2024
A 10% tariff on all imports. Up to 60% on imports from China. A Donald Trump win in November could mean lower US growth, rebounding inflation and higher rates. But his other isolationist policies would have an even bigger impact on global GDP growth rb.gy/3szz6s
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Capital Economics - US retweeted
30 Jan 2024
We’re at the bullish end of 2024 S&P 500 forecasters – get our new report explaining the fundamental and speculative forces that will drive another year of outsized gains for US equities.
shorturl.at/jCJN4
#SP500 #USequities
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26 Jan 2024
Apologies, our %m/m estimate was off by 0.001%. We will try harder.
12 Jan 2024
We estimate that core PCE prices increased by 0.17% m/m in Dec, which means the 3m annualised rate fell to 1.5%, the 6m annualised rate remained at a below-target 1.9% and the 12m rate dipped to 2.9%. Ignore the disinflation deniers, it's happening. Rate cut March.
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Capital Economics - US retweeted
19 Jan 2024
“.. new data on rent inflation released this week raise the possibility that the disinflationary process won’t stop there, with a period of below-target inflation a growing risk.”
- @CapEconUS #CPI
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Capital Economics - US retweeted
17 Jan 2024
About that "last mile is the hardest" nonsense. Remember rent of shelter accounts for 43% of the core #CPI basket. So if it does fall from 6.2% in Dec to -1% that would subtract 3.1% points, leaving core CPI Inflation at sub-1% by end-2024. Jan rate cut maybe?
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Capital Economics - US retweeted
16 Jan 2024
The collapse in the NY Fed manufacturing index to -43.7 in Jan is going to attract a lot of attention from the perma bears, but we'd caution it's more likely noise rather than signal.
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12 Jan 2024
We estimate that core PCE prices increased by 0.17% m/m in Dec, which means the 3m annualised rate fell to 1.5%, the 6m annualised rate remained at a below-target 1.9% and the 12m rate dipped to 2.9%. Ignore the disinflation deniers, it's happening. Rate cut March.
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Capital Economics - US retweeted
10 Jan 2024
“The surge in Chapter 11 business bankruptcy filings .. is not as bad as it looks, as many of them related to the WeWork failure. Excluding those, bankruptcies trended lower at the end of 2023 and, with corporate bond yields falling .. the worst may already be behind us.”
@CapEconUS
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9 Jan 2024
The recent surge in state & local government employment will soon fade, reflecting the earlier stagnation in tax receipts.
capitaleconomics.com/publica…
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Capital Economics - US retweeted
14 Dec 2023
The lagged impact of previous monetary tightening will continue to push GDP growth well below potential next year. Get our latest forecasts for the #US economy in our Q1 2024 US Economic Outlook. Download the key takeaways from our client report now.
shorturl.at/nEY89
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8 Jun 2023
Post-SVB, Federal Home Loan Bank advances to commercial #banks rocketed to a record high of more than $1trn. The real lender of last resort in a banking crisis.
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6 Apr 2023
After switching up the blend on additive/multiplicative seasonal adjustment, the DoL now thinks that initial jobless #claims have been on an upward trend for several months. That matches a similar adverse trend in the Challenger mass layoffs data.
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Capital Economics - US retweeted
6 Apr 2023
There's growing downside risk that the stresses on small US banks & commercial real estate develop into an adverse feedback loop. In a worse-case scenario, this could mean a rolling crisis that lasts for years. Read our report to learn more: bit.ly/3nT53Xy
#USrealestate
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4 Apr 2023
US labour market appears to be returning to pre-Covid Beveridge curve
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13 Mar 2023
Data releases this week in new order of importance:
1. H.4.1 Fed's balance sheet (due Thurs)
2. H.8 commercial banks assets & liabilities (due Fri)
3. February CPI
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13 Mar 2023
H.4.1 will be our first look at demand for Fed's emergency lending facilities - including new BTFP and DW
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13 Mar 2023
H.8 will show us the extent of deposit flight from banks last week.
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