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When $84K broke in January, 1.2M bitcoin:native went underwater. Now price is rallying straight back into the zone where trapped buyers finally get the chance to sell near breakeven. Short Term Holders cost basis also sits around $86.9K–$88K. This is without any doubt one of the biggest supply clusters on the chart. Where do you think price is headed towards?

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Every Wednesday at exactly 17:00 UTC, mark the Bitcoin price. For the last 13 weeks, Bitcoin has traded lower by at least 1% within the next 24 hours. 13 out of 13 times and not once did it fail. The smallest drawdown was -1.11% The average drawdown was -2.58% The median drawdown was -2.40% The largest drawdown was -3.91% This week it happened again. Wednesday 17:00 UTC price was $81,452. Next 24h low was $79,500, a -2.4% down. ethereum:native did the same thing: 13/13 solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 did the same thing: 13/13 Raw P-Value is 0.000244. In plain English, that is roughly a 1 in 4,096 chance if this was random. Next Wednesday, mark the price at 17:00 UTC and watch the next 24 hours.

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bitcoin:native In the previous weekly ranges, BTC and USDT.D moved almost perfectly inverse. BTC swept the range high and failed to hold. USDT.D swept the range low and failed to break down. This time BTC had already swept its range high, but USDT.D had not taken the range low yet, so one confirmation was missing. That is why I didn’t want to force the short early. Now USDT.D has finally swept the weekly range low. If it closes this week back inside the range, that becomes a failed breakdown on dominance. And if that happens while BTC is near $84K-$85K resistance, that is the actual short trigger for me. Not calling for a straight line dump. But structurally, this is where BTC can form the lower high that later creates the lower low.

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Since 2017, whenever Bitcoin had a green monthly candle and the next month also opened green on day 1, price traded at least 5% higher within the next 60 days in 30/33 cases. That is a 90% hit rate and the chance of this being a random event is about 1 in 91,500. The average upside for this event was around 38.8%. April closed green. May 1 also closed green. So, a 5% move from the May 1 close puts Bitcoin around $82.1K, which is exactly the lower end of the $82K-$84K resistance zone I’ve been talking about. So for me, this does not invalidate the bearish thesis and actually gives a cleaner short setup. One last squeeze into resistance, formation of a lower high leading to the sweep of $60K and a new lower low.

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