Not what we want to be reading first thing Saturday morning, but here we are.
Judging by satellite imagery this morning, INVEST 92L looks healthy on satellite. I would not be surprised to see advisories issued soon on what will eventually be "Milton".
Here's the bottom line:
In all likelihood we will have a
#hurricane in the Gulf in a few days. It will be moving in a direction that is rare. There are not many storms that start in the Bay of Campeche and then move towards Florida. If they do, they are almost alway sloppy hybrid systems, not well defined hurricanes. So, it's a little surprising that most models are aggressive. Some have a hurricane near us by Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Hopefully, at some point we will say. "See, there's a reason storms don't do what this one was forecasted to do" We can hope.
It is still a few days away, and I expect there will be track and intensity adjustments. There always are. This is a completely different set-up than Helene. This storm will probably hit the state straight on. That changes the storm surge part of the forecast. Storm surge in this case would happen pretty much at the point of landfall and to the south of landfall. There would be minimal storm surge north of the point of landfall, but there would be a lot of rain and wind. Thus, where (assuming it does) makes landfall will determine who will have surge concerns. So, even a 5 mile difference in landfall matters. OK, so where is it going to make landfall? There is still lots of spread. It seems that
#Tampa Bay to Collier County in SWFL makes the most sense and is supported by the models. That is a large area, with a lot of population. We will start narrowing the potential landfall point in the next day or two.
Debby and Helene did impact our inland areas, but by far, most of the impacts were near the coast. Instead of paralleling the state, this storm will likely move across the state and will bring its strong winds and heavy rain inland.
I know many of you are still in the midst of getting your life back together from Helene. This is the last thing you want to deal with. I (and my team) will do our very best to get through this together. Plan on some changes and adjustments with this one. While intensity is certainly important, the exact track will be critical to determining who receives not much, who receives rain and wind, and who receives a storm surge threat.