Fascinated by the idea that 50,000 years from now will be more like 49,000 years from now than 2026 is like 2006
Today’s virtues, which we think of as the Virtues of the Future - e.g.. adaptability - will turn out to have been merely transitional virtues
x.com/kellerjordan0/status/1…
Theorem: The maximum possible duration of the computational singularity is 470 years.
Proof: The FLOPs capacity of all computers which existed in the year 1986 is estimated to be at most 4.5e14 (Hilbert et al. 2011). Based on public Nvidia revenue and GPU specs, this capacity has grown to at least 1e22 FLOPs as of 2025. This difference implies an average growth rate of 55% per year since 1986. Now observe that the physical universe can support at most 10^104 FLOPs (Lloyd 2000). Therefore, even if we allow for the discovery of faster than light travel, the computational singularity — i.e., the historical period of elevated social and technological unpredictability driven by rapid growth in worldwide computational capacity — cannot persist for longer than (2025 -1986) (104-22)/log_10(1.55) ~= 470 years.
References:
S. Lloyd, “Ultimate physical limits to computation,” *arXiv preprint quant-ph/9908043*, 1999, doi:10.48550/arXiv.quant-ph/9908043.
M. Hilbert and P. López, “The world’s technological capacity to store, communicate, and compute information,” *Science*, vol. 332, no. 6025, pp. 60–65, Apr. 2011, doi:10.1126/science.1200970.