I got early access to Polymarket perps beta. So it’s crazy to see that prediction markets just got a leverage button. But it’s interesting for me and I will try all features there. What should I trade first? S&P500, NVIDIA or what?

Another level of TACO or really it will be permanent peace between Iran and US?

Placed a 3-pick World Cup combo on Polymarket today. Germany, Netherlands and Sweden. All to win on June 14. Threw $151 and hope to win $621 (4x). All three teams are heavy favorites in their respective matchups so I don’t see big risk. Stack them together and the combined implied odds still favor a hit. What do you think? Or I’m gonna loose my money?

Testing of combos on Polymarket was done and turned to profits🫡 Approximately 3x from my bet. So I will go to cafe now for some breakfast.

Tested a little bit, what do you think?

Polymarket just launched Combo Trading in beta. You can now bundle multiple World Cup outcomes into a single position and boost your odds. What best combo will you made for example?

I have bad news for those who believe a ceasefire with Iran is just around the corner. Guys, this conflict is going to last much, MUCH longer than you think. What Trump is trying to do with his public statements is keep oil prices low and buy time to prepare more munitions for future strikes. They need to reassess their strategy and calculate the costs in order to optimize them. This ceasefire is merely a pause to find the most effective strategy. Feel free to take NO positions on any Iran-related markets on Polymarket that are tied to peace. As much as everyone wants it, peace is not coming. This month I still have two open bets: one on the Strait of Hormuz and one on a peace agreement (as shown in the screenshot). As much as everyone would like peace, Trump has different views. We’re not going to turn this post into a geopolitics lesson, I simply want you to make money. Yeah, on the first photo I took the flow of Trump’s fresh statements which just make me laughing.

The Next Global Crisis Will Be Caused by AI Honestly, I don’t know (or maybe I just don’t understand) how the global economy is supposed to digest all of the following at once: the IPOs of currently unprofitable AI giants (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.), the conflict in the Middle East (which, in my opinion, won’t be resolved anytime soon), interest rate cuts and the return of the dollar printing press (probably by 2027), and the growing energy shortage. Will the AI giants survive long enough for Elon Musk to move computing power into orbit? Or will companies slow down the pace of releasing new models? Or will we somehow have enough capacity here on Earth? There are a lot of critically important questions facing humanity when it comes to the AI sector. If we can answer them this year, we might be able to avoid some serious consequences. In fact, we’re already starting to see non-trivial signals of changing market sentiment and a reassessment of the pace at which artificial intelligence is advancing. And this isn’t even about the hypothetical path to AGI. It’s about working with what we already have and understanding how long the industry can continue to leverage this race. (My guess is that we’ll have a much clearer answer by the end of 2026.) It’ll be funny to come back to this post in 3–4 years and see whether I chose the right headline or if it was just a shameless hook all along.

Polymarket dropped a full World Cup hub. Made a quick walkthrough of Polymarket’s new World Cup section for you. So let me introduce it. We see already $2B in volume on the winner market alone. France and Spain tied at 16% (market genuinely has no idea yet). And I liked groups view where you can track advancement probability for every team in every group before a single game is played. There’s also cool globe tab that shows where the betting action is coming from globally (you can tap it and go to the market). Basically a heatmap of who thinks their team wins. What do you think guys? What’s your fav team in the World Cup?

So guys, it’s been a 1.5 week and I’m going to 500$ in all time ref rewards on Polymarket. It’s still 12 people on my link but results are rocketing. Remember I questioned you how fast I will achieve $500, $1k… So the same question now: How many days are left to $500 reward? Or you can boost it via polymarket.com/?r=opened?

At the Fidelity vault (where some of Strategy’s coins are held) the number of $BTC has decreased by approximately 15,000. I told you that we are waiting for Monday (have new positions also). If Saylor announces the sale of bitcoins to redeem bonds, it will give the company a little more time, but it will show that Strategy’s strategy is already operating at full capacity.

I have already received bronze badge on Polymarket. So I’m up 10$?😁 These badges are from new rebate program (made a post about this). Check your profile, maybe you received too.

Near-term BTC price action is going to be heavily dependent on one thing: Did Saylor sell enough BTC this past week? If he sold zero, that’d be a massive mistake on his end and we’re probably cooked. If he sold $1B of BTC, that helps, but realistically I don’t think it’s enough and we probably continue lower. If he sold at least $2B, that’s where it gets interesting and sets up a bounce. The more he sold, the harder we bounce. My base case is that he sold at least $2B. I also think there’s a decent chance BTC bottoms into Monday if the market starts pricing in that he sold some. Rationale: Selling none is my lowest probability scenario. He needs the money. He already did that weird 32 BTC “test” sale and I have a hard time understanding the purpose of it. If he was planning on selling more, all the test did was give him worse execution. If he wasn't planning on selling more, then he nuked the market for no reason. The latter seems completely ridiculous, so my guess is it was indeed a test and he was planning on selling more. A tiny sale ($500m) is the worst of both worlds. It damages the “never sell” narrative without solving the liquidity problem. If you’re going to sell, sell enough to matter. That’s the key here. A material sale does two things at once. It adds real cash runway, but it also sends an important signal to STRC buyers: he is willing to sell meaningful amounts of BTC to keep funding the dividend. That signal matters a lot. Strategy has roughly $871M left in its USD reserve. Against the current preferred debt cash burden, that’s only about 6 months of runway. If he sold $1B, that takes runway from ~6 months to ~13 months. Helpful, but probably not enough. 13 months is enough to reduce near-term stress, but not enough to make STRC feel like a self-sustaining issuance product again. STRC buyers are still underwriting a shrinking cash cushion and hoping the market rallies materially within that window. I think it becomes very hard for STRC to get back to 100 in that scenario. If he sold $2B, that takes the reserve to ~$2.9B and extends runway to roughly 20 months. That is a very different setup. At ~20 months of coverage, blow-up risk gets pushed much further out, STRC buyers can believe the dividend is properly covered by cash on hand, and the product has a real chance of trading back to 100. It also changes how STRC buyers think about the balance sheet. They’re not just relying on new issuance to get paid. They’re backed by a massive BTC treasury that Saylor has now shown he is willing to selectively monetize to support the credit stack. Once STRC is back at 100, the flywheel can restart. This is the “sell to buy” point. A large BTC sale does not just create cash runway. It can increase his ability to issue STRC, which then gives him the ability to buy more BTC than he sold. So the hierarchy is simple: Selling zero is the disaster scenario. Selling too little helps, but probably does not fix the flywheel. Selling enough to matter is what gives STRC a path back to 100 and gives BTC a reason to bounce.

I told that there are no buyers of $BTC So we don’t wait for Monday and fixing profits right now. Appreciate your likes and comments. Saylor, we don’t need the Strategy 8K on Monday because we are already up on Polymarket😁

Saylor must sell bitcoin:native to buy back the debt. Or he must disregard his MSTR mNAV strategy and or $BTC per share approach. He isn’t in good situation fr (despite his infinite leverage machine).

I’ve started adding to my YES position in $60,000 also (at 62c & 65c first buys). I expect Strategy’s announcement of a major $BTC sale this coming Monday to be the first news trigger. And more ETF’s selling. Anyway, now we don’t have any triggers and signs to show crypto market strength. There are no buyers.