Environmental Data Systems | AI x Earth Observation | @MarineCreatures
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ALT Global average temperature (part of diagram) It is likely (75% chance) that the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is considered exceptionally unlikely (less than 1%) that any single year will exceed 2°C above the 1850-1900 average in the next five years. The five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) indicates a tendency towards El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028, it says. 2027: a record-breaking year? New report suggests more global temperature records ahead Author: Grahame Madge 05:00 (UTC 1) on Thu 28 May 2026 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2026/new-report-suggests-more-global-temperature-records-ahead
ALT Fig 2 Probability of peak warming in response to cumulative emissions. (a) Probability that the peak forced temperature response (compared to the 1850–1899 pre-industrial baseline) remains below a range of thresholds as a function of remaining cumulative emissions, predicted by CNNs initialized using observations in 2023. Vertical dotted lines denote the remaining emissions under three decarbonization scenarios. (b) The CNN-predicted derived distributions for the peak forced response by 2100, corresponding to the cross-sections shown as vertical dotted lines in (a). (c) As in (a) but for the maximum annual temperature by 2100. (d) As in (b), but for the maximum annual temperature by 2100 (i.e., corresponding to the cross-sections shown as vertical dotted lines in (c)). Data-Driven Predictions of Peak Warming Under Rapid Decarbonization Shows 2.43°C central estimate for hottest annual temperature SSP1-26 (and 5.49°C extremely unlikely hottest annual temperature SSP2-45)
