gm friends 🧵 Bitcoin “Bear Market Resistance Band” — What it means now Confused about “is the drop over, is it a bear, is now a buy?” This frames it clearly. Referencing Benjamin Cowen’s latest BMRB video; altcoin notes at the end. Bitcoin is not above the Bull Market Support Band. Structure has shifted. In midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022), BTC often tags this band and gets rejected. Current action aligns with history. 2022 analogue: support break → long wick down → weeks of slow bleed → sharp relief rally. That rally was not a trend reversal. Today’s weekly candles echo that—arguably weaker closes. Seasonality: often a “dip-like” move in Feb, local top early March. Not a rule, just an average. Historically more weakness shows up in April–May. Many mistake relief for reversal; Cowen doesn’t. Counter-trend rallies are seductive and costly. In bears, small pops pull you in; timing start/finish is guesswork. Psychology: near highs, no one wants downside talk; near lows, no one wants to admit bear. BTC is an asset class—it cycles. What we see isn’t abnormal for a midterm year. Where’s the bottom? Best case in his view: October; earlier (May) isn’t impossible. Even in a May scenario: sharp drop → strong rally → potentially lower low later. “It’s over” may not be. On M2: liquidity ≠ automatic risk-on. Money supply can grow and still park in banks/treasuries. M2 turns haven’t perfectly synced with BTC bottoms. Watching only M2 is an expensive bear-market trap. Altcoins: if BTC is still in a bear structure, a broad, durable altseason is unlikely. Typical pattern: BTC stabilizes, alts pop harder, then dump harder. Portfolio framing questions: - What regime are we in? - How much risk? - What time horizon? - Which projects survive? My approach here: - Avoid aggressive altcoin loading while BTC is structurally weak. - Keep a small basket of high-conviction names to avoid FOMO risk. - Prefer long-horizon DCA. - Buy weakness selectively on quality; skip chasing relief rallies. - Focus on resilient projects. Goal isn’t to nail the exact bottom. It’s to read the environment correctly and prepare accordingly.

GM Everyone - Eligible competitors can buy in the @Bappfun pre‑sale at $800k FDV. If $BAPP mirrors @virtuals_io (staking quests low FDV), expect strong upward pressure. - Registration: Jan 29 – Feb 2 Tiers: Diamond, Platinum, Gold, Silver $BAPP Token Sale - Raise: $600k - Start: Feb 3, 13:00 UTC - End: Feb 6, 13:00 UTC - Supply: 10,000,000 - FDV: $800,000 - Community Sale: 75% - Liquidity: 15% - Community Rewards: 10% - Unlock: 90% at TGE; 10% reserved for future community rewards Allocation Mechanics - Based on: your tier the amount you commit during the sale - If total commitments exceed the raise, allocation = tier weight committed amount. Higher tier higher commit = larger allocation. - Excess funds beyond your entitled allocation are refunded. Prevents one large commit from dominating and prioritizes tier‑qualified participants. Public Sale? - Public participants can deposit during the window, but they won’t receive allocation. - If no allocation, full commitment is refunded. This shifts $BAPP away from “first‑come, first‑serve” toward a controlled, balanced distribution.

gm friends 🧵 Bitcoin “Bear Market Resistance Band” — What it means now Confused about “is the drop over, is it a bear, is now a buy?” This frames it clearly. Referencing Benjamin Cowen’s latest BMRB video; altcoin notes at the end. Bitcoin is not above the Bull Market Support Band. Structure has shifted. In midterm years (2014, 2018, 2022), BTC often tags this band and gets rejected. Current action aligns with history. 2022 analogue: support break → long wick down → weeks of slow bleed → sharp relief rally. That rally was not a trend reversal. Today’s weekly candles echo that—arguably weaker closes. Seasonality: often a “dip-like” move in Feb, local top early March. Not a rule, just an average. Historically more weakness shows up in April–May. Many mistake relief for reversal; Cowen doesn’t. Counter-trend rallies are seductive and costly. In bears, small pops pull you in; timing start/finish is guesswork. Psychology: near highs, no one wants downside talk; near lows, no one wants to admit bear. BTC is an asset class—it cycles. What we see isn’t abnormal for a midterm year. Where’s the bottom? Best case in his view: October; earlier (May) isn’t impossible. Even in a May scenario: sharp drop → strong rally → potentially lower low later. “It’s over” may not be. On M2: liquidity ≠ automatic risk-on. Money supply can grow and still park in banks/treasuries. M2 turns haven’t perfectly synced with BTC bottoms. Watching only M2 is an expensive bear-market trap. Altcoins: if BTC is still in a bear structure, a broad, durable altseason is unlikely. Typical pattern: BTC stabilizes, alts pop harder, then dump harder. Portfolio framing questions: - What regime are we in? - How much risk? - What time horizon? - Which projects survive? My approach here: - Avoid aggressive altcoin loading while BTC is structurally weak. - Keep a small basket of high-conviction names to avoid FOMO risk. - Prefer long-horizon DCA. - Buy weakness selectively on quality; skip chasing relief rallies. - Focus on resilient projects. Goal isn’t to nail the exact bottom. It’s to read the environment correctly and prepare accordingly.

GM Friends 🧵 Republic Foundation Airdrop: Pros & Cons I evaluated the @republicfdn airdrop odds—here’s the TL;DR. Points program is live. Faucet is only here: points.republicai.io Referrals node activity currently earn points. Pros: - Cosmos-based. Rare misses; ecosystem usually delivers. - Strong airdrop culture—oldschool vibes. - First solid Cosmos validator testnet in 2–3 years (not counting Warden). - InfoFi meta is over. If “oldschool airdrops” return, Republic is a prime candidate. Cons: - Team is anonymous. - Investment side unclear. - Community management feels amateur (even Discord roles aren’t automated). What’s the downside? If you run a node (you should consider it): ~$10–12/mo server cost. The grind looks worth it. In return you get: - Testnet participation - Validator track record - Cosmos airdrop potential - Early-mover advantage 7) OG Role? Given out via DC invites; ~1,000 OGs gone fast. I didn’t get one. Not a problem—what matters is how many roles/testnets you track and for how long.

This man lost 7 million dollars in 2 months, and until the age of 30, he didn’t even dare to spend 1 million dollars... 😀 There are many people like this. Sometimes, as money increases, its contribution to life doesn’t change much. It just increases your capacity to lose. Money, after a certain point, doesn’t bring happiness, it can just be an illusion. You think you’re secure... until you see your losses in a screenshot

GM Friends @KaitoAI Studio waitlist is live. Join the list here: kaito.ai/studio It looks like the new system also resets “Yap” rankings. Get in early and secure your spot.

gm friends Yes, the poll of the year is here! Are you buying altcoins?

GN Everyone BioXP rewards drop every Monday. @BioProtocol keeps the “New Year, New Rewards” campaign rolling for Bio content creators. In January: 10 DAOs launched. BIO bridged to Solana and Base. Team attended JP Morgan Healthcare. BioFy launched for real DeSci products—preorders live. Currently on BioFy: - DermaDAO: Sol Drop & Moon Drop (skin care) - HairDAO: One BioFy Shampoo (sample) - ValleyDAO: Hoodie $SKIN launch still pending—one of the most anticipated in the ecosystem. I’ll keep tracking Bio and DeSci developments.

𝐇𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐃𝐮𝐛𝐚𝐢 - 𝐃𝐚𝐲 𝟐 - Workshop on Bridging, Rust compiler and Private Multisig - Founder AMA with Dominik (product) Videos incoming 😀

GM Friends Liquidity fragmentation is silently draining everyone. The same capital sits idle across 10 different pools. It does nothing. Your swaps feel bad because depth is thin and scattered. Tech keeps treating this like it isn’t the core problem. Instead of duplicating liquidity everywhere, unify it. Build a single surface across chains—tap real depth, not puddles. Protocols burn incentives to fake liquidity. Users eat slippage. Beyond cuts through the mess with true aggregation. Concentrated liquidity works better. More depth per dollar. Less friction, less waste, better execution. Fragmentation is the hidden fee nobody talks about. Fix it, and everything changes. @beyond__tech

GM Everyone Another reminder to swap your NFTs on @spaace_io and position yourself for what’s coming this Q1. Don’t miss it: every action on the platform earns rewards. Create your profile → ~3,000 XP. Complete Battle Pass quests → more XP. Join weekly tournaments → earn $Spaace and XP. Hold specific NFTs on Spaace → get rewarded with Chests. $SPACE is poised to be the next big chef in the cosmos. You’re still early, Anon. Jump in now. Judging by the photo, we’re getting very close.

GM Everyone - This is a strong signal of what @Bappfun is trying to build. - Kicking off the launchpad with ShidoAI sets the tone early: real integrations, real incentives, real rewards for the community. - Creators earn BAPS, $BAPP stakers gain access, and a 10% community airdrop isn’t just marketing—it’s alignment. - My standout rule: every project launched here should flow value back to $BAPP stakers and BAPS creators. That’s how you build a launchpad community—by design, not by promises. - It looks like the $BAPP era is officially beginning—and it’s the kind of start that compounds over the long run. - gQuack: Regardless of timelines, I keep noticing creators who show up daily, quietly and patiently building their brand. - Just consistency, learning, and long‑term conviction. - Effort like this always compounds. @wallchain