a year ago I was in work/compliance purgatory typing anonymous notes on the internet. I changed jobs, brought my whole self to work (finally), and now I’m collaborating with some of my favorite writers. Whatever you’re waiting for, just start. Thanks @EpsilonTheory, let’s go

“When you trade at such a high multiple, even if the great news happens, what tends to happen is you hit a ceiling.” When SpaceX begins trading today, it will trade at a price-to-sales multiple higher than any company in the S&P 500. Cameron Dawson explains what Palantir's experience can teach us about stocks with exceptionally high valuations (and why that lesson has not always applied in the Elon Musk universe).

Remember that time I misspelled almanac and found it a day later? AI should write more of my stuff, clearly. Yous guys may be onto something...

keeping it 💯

Our snack game cannot be defeated.

Rusty Guinn hasn't written much lately. But when he finally did - he started at 10pm and finished at 6:30am. Now that's a work ethic. We get into how he makes it work for him in our latest Notes on Notes for @EpsilonTheory @Panoptica_ai. Episode and essay below!

“This is recognized as something different, and we’ve dropped any pretense that they are passive indices.” Mike Green returns to Excess Returns to discuss why the SpaceX IPO may mark a turning point in how investors think about passive investing. ✅ Why index funds now act as active forces in the market ✅ How SpaceX exposed the power of index committees ✅ How passive flows mechanically favor the biggest stocks ✅ What happens when years of buybacks meet a flood of new supply ✅ Why AI earnings may be more circular than they look ✅ Why the headline economy may be missing household stress ✅ What AI may change eventually, but not as quickly as markets expect

A great primer from Dave on what is coming for SpaceX today and in the coming weeks.

“At what price would you be a seller?” Cliff Asness was anonymous on the Yahoo message boards during the dot-com bubble. He asked a simple question about Cisco. The answers weren’t what he expected. He explains the bubble lesson inside of it.

For years, big tech's been buying back shares and shrinking supply. But now the biggest names in AI are flooding the market with issuance. @profplum99 is back on @excessreturnpod explaining this fork in the road for passive: youtu.be/mP1SORkNIW4?si=gnvY…

“Changes in megatrends explain roughly half of the S&P 500’s quarterly movements.” “If growth and earnings are rising because the supply of ideas is increasing, that means inflation ultimately will come down. It means interest rates may not rise with debt levels, and you can support higher valuations.” Vanguard Chief Economist Joe Davis explains why market moves aren’t always driven by the forces investors think.

Great prep-convo for the popcorn event of the SpaceX IPO...

Excellent interview by @CultishCreative and @excessreturnpod of the always thoughtful @profplum99 We Asked Mike Green What Happens When Passive Flows Meet the Largest IPO... youtu.be/mP1SORkNIW4?si=0_Bg… via @YouTube

NEW FROM ME: On @etfcom I break down what the heck a 351 exchange is and why you're suddenly seeing those three little numbers so much lately. link in the next tweet

Valuing SpaceX via @CultishCreative… "The total addressable market is space & time.” “Try plugging literally the universe into your discounted cashflow model.” “There's no framework for this.” Absolutely perfect. Friday (& the following weeks) will be wild. via @DaveNadig

BASS BOOST ENABLED (the @DaveNadig playlist game is pretty nuts, right @CameronDawson?)